Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Picks and Prediction - September 11, 2025
Closing out the regular season in the WNBA, we have Mercury and Wings predictions and picks for Thursday night. Jockeying for postseason position, Phoenix (27-16 SU, 21-21-1 ATS) lost versus Los Angeles on Tuesday night, 88-83, as -7 favorites at home. Jockeying for draft position, the Wings (9-34 SU, 19-24 ATS) lost at Los Angeles on Sunday, 91-77, as +9.5 underdogs. Tipoff from College Park Center is scheduled for 8:00 EST and with a few more games on the docket, grab some more of our free WNBA Picks.
Mercury in danger of slipping on last step
Just when it looked as if the Mercury were making a charge towards a top four position in the postseason, recent slip ups have them on the verge of falling into fifth place. They come into the finale having lost back-to-back games in the wake of their six-game winning streak and they are now just one game up on fifth place New York, who holds the tiebreaker over them. In their loss against the Sparks, the offense shot 41.7% from the field and hit 10 threes. They won the rebound battle, 39-35, but kicked over 12 turnovers to Los Angeles who took them for 13 points. Despite the defense forcing 10 turnovers from the Sparks, they scored only eight points.
In 43 games this season, the Phoenix offense averaged 83 points per game, seventh in the WNBA. The team is shooting 43.3% from the field and 33.8% from three-point range and they average 14 free throws and 9.3 threes a night. Phoenix is fifth in the league with 34.8 rebounds per game and they have dished out 20.9 assists per game. On the defensive side, they are allowing 79.7 points per game, the fourth-best mark in the league, and opponents are shooting 42.5% from the field and 32.2% from three-point range against them. The Mercury average 7.8 steals and 3.8 blocks, which had allowed them to coax 14 turnovers from foes each night.
Sign Up for StatSalt News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Team notes
- Satou Sabally hit four of the team’s 10 threes against Los Angeles and her 24 points bumped her season average to a team-best 16.4 points per game.
- Alyssa Thomas recorded her eighth triple-double of the season on Tuesday with 10 points, 10 assists and 11 rebounds.
- Kahleah Cooper logged 19 minutes in Tuesday’s loss, her shortest effort since she played 18 minutes in her season debut.
- Sami Whitcomb came off the bench and for the third straight game, knocked down at least three three pointers.
Lottery odds in Wings favor
The Wings are already locked into the basement, which at least will earn them the best chances to again win the WNBA Draft Lottery. They come into the season finale having lost 10 straight games, their longest losing streak of the season. Against the Sparks, Dallas scored under 20 points in three of four quarters as the team shot 38.9% from the field and 21.7% from three-point range. The Wings did win the rebound battle, 46-41, but they lost 17 turnovers while only forced seven from Los Angeles for six points. The Dallas defense kept L.A. to 40.5% field goal shooting but they also yielded 10 threes to them.
Their offense wasn’t the worst in the league with 81.3 points per game, which ranks ninth in the WNBA. They are shooting 42.1% from the field and 30.5% from beyond the arc, the worst mark in the league. The Wings are fourth best from the free-throw line where they’ve shot 80.5%. Down low, rebounds have come 35.2 per game on average while they’ve dished 20.1 assists out per game. Defensively, they’ve been able to secure 12.5 turnovers from opponents via their 7.3 steals and four blocks per game. The Wings are giving up a league-worst 88.3 points per game and teams are shooting 46% against them.
Team notes
- Paige Bueckers scored 18 points on Sunday and is fifth in the league with 19.1 points per game and 25th with a 47.7% shooting percentage.
- Myisha Hines-Allen had 15 points and a team-high 13 rebounds against L.A. for her third double-double of the season.
- Maddy Siegrist scored 13 on Sunday and averaged 16.4 points over her last 11 games.
- Arike Ogunbowale, second on the team with 15.5 points per game, will miss the finale due to a knee injury.
Mercury vs. Wings Picks
Spread Pick for Mercury vs. Wings
- Mercury -4.5
The three prior meetings between the teams this season saw Phoenix go 2-1 SU and ATS, both wins coming on their home court. Even without the weight of postseason positioning on the line, Phoenix should be motivated to go off in this matchup just to erase the stench of back-to-back losses to non-playoff sides. Dallas is crashing into the finish, and they are playing for absolutely nothing at this point. On top of it, they are banged up and are pretty much a one-trick pony, with Bueckers carrying the team in nearly every aspect of the game. The Mercury had rattled off six straight wins against some good teams before their recent slip up. Going into the postseason with three straight losses against three of the bottom five teams in the league is not a blueprint for success. Phoenix needs to lay it on the line, and I expect them to do just that. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Wings.
Take the Mercury giving the points.
Over/Under for Mercury vs. Wings
- Over 163.5
In three games, these two teams averaged a combined 178 points per game, hitting the over each time. The Mercury have taken full advantage of Dallas’ league-worst defense, averaging 94.7 points per game against them. Noted above, Phoenix has had a pair of very unfortunate losses, and they’d hate to catch a third heading into the playoffs. Because of that, I expect they attack this Wings defense once again. Last time they met, Phoenix put 102 points on them. The Mercury have scored 83 points or more in three of their last four and five of their last seven games. Dallas scored 80 or more in three of their last six games. The over is 7-3 in the last ten games between them.
Take the over.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Bet $5 & Get $150
