Phoenix Mercury vs Golden State Valkyries Picks and Prediction for Tuesday June 9 2026
The Phoenix Mercury and Golden State Valkyries meet in a WNBA Commissioner's Cup matchup at Chase Center in San Francisco, California, on Tuesday, June 9, 2026. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 PM ET, and the game will air on WNBA League Pass. Golden State enters as a 7.5-point favorite with a moneyline of -310, while Phoenix is listed at +250. The total is set at 161.5 points. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks.
Mercury Seeking Back-to-Back Road Wins
Phoenix enters the game with a 4-8 overall record and a 3-4 record away from home. The Mercury have won two of their last five games, picking up victories over Portland and Seattle. Their losses came against Minnesota and New York twice.
The Mercury average 81.7 points per game while allowing 84.9. They shoot 41% from the field, average 31.7 rebounds, and record 17.9 assists per game. Defensively, Phoenix contributes 8.1 steals and 3.8 blocks.
One positive for Phoenix has been its ability to create turnovers. The Mercury average 8.1 steals per game, the highest figure in this matchup. That defensive activity could help keep them competitive against a Golden State team that has been solid at home.
Golden State Looking to Defend Home Court
Golden State enters with a 6-5 overall record and a strong 4-2 home record. The Valkyries have gone 2-3 in their last five games, earning wins over Portland and Indiana while falling to Las Vegas twice and Minnesota.
The Valkyries average 85.8 points per game and allow just 80.5 points. They shoot 41% from the floor, collect 33.9 rebounds, and average 19.1 assists. Golden State also contributes 6.5 steals and 4.5 blocks per contest.
The strongest statistical advantage for Golden State is its scoring differential. The Valkyries score more than four points per game more than Phoenix while allowing more than four points fewer. That edge on both sides of the ball has helped them maintain a winning record.
Phoenix Mercury vs Golden State Valkyries Picks and Prediction
Phoenix Mercury vs Golden State Valkyries Pick
- Pick: Golden State Valkyries -7.5
Golden State owns the better overall record, the better home record, and stronger scoring margins. The Valkyries average 85.8 points while allowing only 80.5, compared to Phoenix's 81.7 scored and 84.9 allowed. Those numbers point toward Golden State having the more complete profile entering this contest, making the favorite the preferred side.
Phoenix Mercury vs Golden State Valkyries Total Pick
- Pick: Over 161.5
I like the over in this matchup. Golden State averages 85.8 points per game, and Phoenix allows 84.9. While Phoenix has struggled offensively at times, the Mercury have scored 78 and 72 points in their last two victories. The combination of Golden State's offense and Phoenix's defensive numbers gives this total a reasonable path to the over.
Final Score Prediction: Golden State Valkyries 86 – Phoenix Mercury 76