Phoenix Mercury vs Indiana Fever Picks and Prediction for Monday June 22 2026
Use Code SSWC The Phoenix Mercury and Indiana Fever meet at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana on Monday, June 22, 2026, with tipoff scheduled for 8:00 PM ET. The game will be televised on USA Net and WTHR Channel 13. Indiana enters the matchup as a 5.5-point favorite with a moneyline of -230, while Phoenix is listed at +190. The total for the game is set at 176.5 points. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks for additional analysis and predictions.
Previous Game Recap & Box Score
Phoenix enters this contest coming off a convincing 93-73 home victory over Seattle. The Mercury controlled that game defensively and limited Seattle to just 73 points while scoring 93 of their own. Indiana, meanwhile, is looking to bounce back after a 113-96 road loss to Atlanta. The Fever struggled to slow down Atlanta's offense and dropped their second straight game after also losing to the Dream on June 18.
Phoenix Searching for Consecutive Victories
The Mercury bring a 5-12 overall record into this matchup and have gone 3-6 on the road this season. Phoenix has lost four of its last five games despite earning an impressive win over Seattle in its most recent outing. Before that victory, the Mercury recently lost to Las Vegas, Los Angeles in overtime, Dallas, and Golden State. The team has had difficulty building momentum but will arrive in Indianapolis with some confidence after scoring 93 points in its last game.
Phoenix averages 82.5 points per game while shooting 43% from the field. The Mercury also average 32.4 rebounds and 19.4 assists per contest. Defensively, they allow 85.9 points per game while contributing 3.8 blocks and 7.6 steals.
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One positive for Phoenix is that its defense has generally performed better than its record might suggest. The Mercury allow 85.9 points per game, which is lower than Indiana's defensive average. Their recent win over Seattle showcased their ability to limit opponents offensively, and that could be important against one of the league's higher-scoring teams.
Fever Looking to Defend Home Court
Indiana enters Monday with a 9-7 overall record and a strong 6-3 mark at home. The Fever have won three of their last five games, although they have dropped back-to-back contests against Atlanta. Prior to those losses, Indiana defeated Toronto, Connecticut, and Chicago, including a 114-106 overtime victory over the Sky.
The Fever have been one of the most productive offensive teams in the league this season. Indiana averages 92.4 points per game and shoots 46% from the field. The team also averages 34.1 rebounds and 20.9 assists per game. Defensively, the Fever allow 89.7 points per contest while recording 4.3 blocks and 6.1 steals.
The biggest strength for Indiana is clearly its offense. The Fever score nearly 10 points more per game than Phoenix and own the better field goal percentage. Their ability to generate points consistently has helped them maintain a winning record despite allowing nearly 90 points per game on the defensive end.
Phoenix Mercury vs Indiana Fever Picks and Prediction
Phoenix Mercury vs Indiana Fever Pick
- Pick: Indiana Fever -5.5
Indiana owns the better overall record, the stronger home record, and a sizable edge in the matchup predictor at 69.4%. The Fever also lead this matchup in scoring, field goal percentage, rebounds, assists, and blocks. While Phoenix is coming off a strong victory, Indiana's overall body of work throughout the season has been stronger. The Fever's offensive production gives them a solid opportunity to cover the spread at home.
Phoenix Mercury vs Indiana Fever Total Pick
- Pick: Over 176.5
I like the over in this game. Indiana averages 92.4 points per contest, while Phoenix averages 82.5. The Fever have scored 113, 101, and 114 points in three of their last five games, and the Mercury are coming off a 93-point performance. When combining the season scoring averages of both teams, the offensive potential points toward a game that can push beyond this total.
Final Score Prediction: Indiana Fever 94 – Phoenix Mercury 86
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