Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction for Friday, October 3, 2025
Use Code SSWC Welcome to Game 1 of the 2025 WNBA Finals as the Phoenix Mercury are heading to the Michelob ULTRA Arena on Friday night to battle against the Las Vegas Aces for our Mercury vs. Aces prediction. The Mercury were able to win Game 4 of the WNBA Semifinals in their own building 86-81, over the Minnesota Lynx, while the Aces won Game 5 of their semifinal series over the Indiana Fever 107-98 in overtime at home. The Aces were able to win the season series 3-1 during the regular season. Fast, focused, useful: WNBA predictions for Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces.
Mercury Looking to Steal Game 1
The Phoenix Mercury are looking to build off their WNBA Finals-clinching Game 4 home win against the Minnesota Lynx. The Mercury shot 29-of-68 (42.6%) overall, 11-of-28 (39.3%) from beyond the arc, and 17-of-23 (73.9%) from the charity stripe. Forward Alyssa Thomas played 37 minutes as she recorded 23 points, eight rebounds, 10 assists, one steal, and six turnovers. The defense allowed Minnesota to shoot 41.6% throughout the game, 37.5% from distance, and 88.9% from the free-throw line.
Phoenix is currently fourth in the WNBA with 80.3 points per game scored in the postseason. Their defense ranks first in the playoffs as they are allowing 75.9 points per game as well.
Injury Report for Phoenix
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- Guard Julia Ayrault: Personal (OUT)
- Guard Helena Pueyo: Personal (OUT)
Aces Looking for a 1-0 Series Lead
The Las Vegas Aces were able to step up with a Game 5 home overtime victory against the Indiana Fever. The Aces finished shooting 38-of-80 (47.5%) from the floor, 11-of-26 (42.3%) from three, and 20-of-22 (90.9%) from the free-throw line. Center A’ja Wilson led the way with 35 points, eight rebounds, five assists, four steals, and four blocks in 41 minutes of action. The defense allowed Indiana to have a team shooting split of 47.9/41.2/87.5. Las Vegas has averaged the most points during the postseason thus far with 87.0 right now. The Aces are sitting in fifth place as they are giving up 81.6 points per game during the playoffs as well.
Injury Report for Las Vegas
No injuries to report
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Pick
Spread Pick for Mercury vs. Aces
- Las Vegas Aces -155 (5 units)
The Las Vegas Aces are doing an incredible job throughout the season and have the experience to dominate throughout the WNBA Finals. They were able to officially “wake up” after going five games with a depleted Indiana Fever team, but have the best player on the court in A’ja Wilson, who is averaging 26.0 points and 2.8 blocks in the playoffs thus far. The Mercury are a strong team, but there is a reason why the Aces are the favorite here and won three of the four regular-season games, so go with the Las Vegas Aces to win here.
Over/Under Pick for Mercury vs. Aces
- OVER 159.5 (4 units)
These teams have been effective from beyond the arc this postseason as the Mercury are fourth with a 31.4 team 3-point percentage, while the Aces are second in the WNBA Playoffs with a 39.2 team percentage from beyond the arc. Both teams are also pushing the pace in the playoffs thus far as Phoenix is third with a 95.26 pace while Las Vegas is fifth with a All in all, go with OVER 159.5 POINTS as the better bet for this game.
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