Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction for July 11, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Phoenix Mercury travel to Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, to take on the Las Vegas Aces on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. ET, with television coverage available on Peacock, NBCSN, and Vegas 34. Phoenix enters the contest with an 8-15 overall record and a 5-7 road record, while Las Vegas owns a 16-6 record and is 6-4 at home. The Mercury are listed as 10.5-point underdogs with a +340 moneyline, while the Aces are favored by 10.5 points and carry a -440 moneyline. The total for the game is set at 173.5 points. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks.
Phoenix Needs to Build on Its Recent Offensive Effort
The Mercury are 8-15 overall and 5-7 away from home entering Saturday’s game. Phoenix has gone 3-2 over its last five contests despite dropping its last two games. The Mercury recently lost 92-89 to Indiana and 77-66 to Chicago after putting together three consecutive victories over Seattle, Toronto, and Indiana by scores of 90-67, 89-80, and 111-109.
Phoenix averages 83.7 points per game while shooting 44% from the field. The Mercury also average 32.0 rebounds, 19.1 assists, 3.4 blocks, and 7.7 steals per contest. Defensively, they allow 85.7 points per game, creating a negative scoring differential of two points per game.
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One encouraging sign for Phoenix is that its offense has shown the ability to produce high-scoring performances. The Mercury scored 111 points against Indiana, 90 against Seattle, and 89 in their most recent game. Their average of 7.7 steals per contest is also higher than Las Vegas, giving them an opportunity to create extra possessions. The challenge will be finding more defensive consistency after allowing at least 90 points in two of their last five games.
Las Vegas Continues to Produce on Both Ends
The Aces enter this matchup with a 16-6 overall record and a 6-4 mark at home. Las Vegas has won three of its last five games, most recently defeating Portland 88-80 on the road. During this stretch, the Aces also defeated Chicago twice while suffering losses to Indiana and New York.
Las Vegas has been one of the stronger statistical teams in this matchup. The Aces average 89.9 points per game while shooting an impressive 49% from the field. They also average 34.6 rebounds, 22.3 assists, and 5.2 blocks per game. Defensively, Las Vegas allows 86.1 points per contest.
The biggest strength for the Aces is offensive efficiency. Their 49% shooting percentage is the best figure between these teams, and they also average more points, rebounds, assists, and blocks than Phoenix. While the Aces allow slightly more points than the Mercury, their ability to score nearly 90 points per game has helped them build a 16-6 record through the opening portion of the season.
Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction
Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Pick
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces -10.5
Las Vegas has earned the edge in nearly every major category provided. The Aces own the better overall record at 16-6, have a significant advantage in the matchup predictor at 70.1%, and average 89.9 points per game while shooting 49% from the field. Phoenix has played better over its last five games than its overall record suggests, winning three times before dropping its last two, but the Mercury still allow 85.7 points per contest and face a Las Vegas team that has consistently produced on offense. I expect the Aces to take advantage of their efficiency and depth in the team statistics to cover the spread.
Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Total Pick
- Pick: Over 173.5
I like the over in this matchup because both teams have shown they can score. Las Vegas averages 89.9 points per game, while Phoenix contributes 83.7 points per contest. That combined average reaches 173.6 points, which is right around the posted total. Phoenix has also been involved in several high-scoring games recently, including totals of 181, 179, and 220 points over its last five outings. With the Aces averaging nearly 90 points per game and Phoenix capable of contributing offensively, I believe this matchup finishes just above the total.
Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 93 – Phoenix Mercury 82
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