Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction for Sunday, October 5, 2025

Welcome to Game 2 of the 2025 WNBA Finals as the Phoenix Mercury are heading to the Michelob ULTRA Arena on Sunday afternoon to battle against the Las Vegas Aces for our Mercury vs. Aces prediction. The Mercury were able to squeak out an 89-86 home win in Game 1 to get the early advantage in the series. These teams have played tough, but Las Vegas now won four of the five games they have played when factoring in the regular season and playoffs. Fast, focused, useful: WNBA predictions for Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces.

Mercury Looking to Even Up the Series

The Phoenix Mercury are looking to recover from a narrow 89-86 road loss in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals. The Mercury shot 31-of-66 (47.0%) overall, 14-of-36 (38.9%) from beyond the arc, and 10-of-13 (76.9%) from the charity stripe. Guard Kahleah Copper played 36 minutes as she recorded 21 points, four rebounds, and one assist. The defense allowed Las Vegas to shoot 45.8% throughout the game, 33.3% from distance, and 70.0% from the free-throw line.

Phoenix is currently fourth in the WNBA with 81.0 points per game scored in the postseason. Their defense ranks second in the playoffs, allowing 77.5 points per game as well.

Injury Report for Phoenix

• Guard Julia Ayrault: Personal (OUT)
• Guard Helena Pueyo: Personal (OUT)

Aces to Sweep First 2 Games

The Las Vegas Aces were able to step up with a strong second half to secure an 89-86 Game 1 home victory. The Aces finished shooting 33-of-72 (45.8%) from the floor, 9-of-27 (33.3%) from three, and 14-of-20 (60.0%) from the free-throw line. Center A’ja Wilson led the way with 21 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, one steal, and two blocks in 38 minutes of action. The defense allowed Phoenix to have a team shooting split of 47.0/38.9/76.9.

Las Vegas has averaged the most points during the postseason thus far, with 87.2 right now. The Aces are sitting in fifth place as they are giving up 82.1 points per game during the playoffs as well.

Injury Report for Las Vegas

No injuries to report

Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Pick

Spread Pick for Mercury vs. Aces

• Las Vegas Aces -145 (5 units)

The Las Vegas Aces have proven to be the better team, and the fourth quarter of Game 1 showcased that. They won the final quarter 22-15, and the last 30 seconds saw Alyssa Thomas miss a pair of free throws while Jackie Young knocked down two of her own. The defense for Las Vegas was able to force a bad shot with a three-point lead to win the game. The Mercury don’t have an answer for Aces’ ability to score 41 points off the bench as well, so go with the Las Vegas Aces to take a 2-0 series lead.

Over/Under Pick for Mercury vs. Aces

• UNDER 164.5 (4 units)

This is a lot of points, and I understand that they hit more than this in Game 1, but there is going to be an adjustment. There were 23 made threes in Game 1 and that is difficult to expect once again. Expect to see more of an inside game as a bit of an adjustment here, and UNDER 164.5 POINTS to hit in this game as the better bet.