Phoenix Mercury vs Los Angeles Sparks Picks and Prediction for Tuesday August 11 2026

The Phoenix Mercury face the Los Angeles Sparks at the Galen Center in Los Angeles, California, on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET with coverage on NBA TV and WNBA League Pass. Phoenix enters at 12-22 overall, while Los Angeles is 12-19. The Sparks lead the season series 2-1 after winning the first two meetings before Phoenix answered with an 86-82 victory in July. Phoenix is a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 181.5, while the Mercury are -122 on the moneyline and Los Angeles is +102. Check out our free WNBA picks for more predictions from Tuesday's WNBA schedule.

Mercury Look to End a Three-Game Slide

Phoenix enters Tuesday having lost three straight and four of its last five games. The Mercury were beaten 95-75 by Washington on Sunday after losses to Connecticut and Atlanta. Their only victory during this five-game stretch came in a 106-101 road win over Chicago.

The Mercury average 83.6 points per game while allowing 87.4. Phoenix shoots 44% from the field and averages 31.3 rebounds, 19.9 assists, 3.2 blocks and 7.2 steals per game.

Phoenix's biggest concern is its recent lack of consistency. The Mercury have scored 82 points or fewer in three consecutive games, and Kelsey Plum is listed out with a calf injury. That removes one of Phoenix's more important offensive options from a matchup already close to a pick'em.

Sparks Still Searching for Consistency

Los Angeles enters at 12-19 overall and has gone 2-3 over its last five games. The Sparks lost 84-78 to Golden State on Sunday after defeating Minnesota 89-82. Los Angeles has alternated wins and losses during this five-game stretch.

The Sparks average 89.2 points per game while allowing 93.6. Los Angeles shoots 47% from the field and averages 31.0 rebounds, 22.0 assists, 3.2 blocks and 7.5 steals per game. The offense has been substantially more productive than Phoenix's over the full season.

Los Angeles' biggest strength is its offensive efficiency, but defense remains the concern. The Sparks allow more points per game than any number shown for Phoenix, leaving them vulnerable even against a Mercury team that has struggled recently.

Phoenix Mercury vs Los Angeles Sparks Picks and Prediction

Pick: Los Angeles Sparks +1.5

Los Angeles is the preferred side as a slight home underdog. The Sparks average 89.2 points per game compared with Phoenix's 83.6 and shoot 47% from the field compared with 44% for the Mercury. Phoenix has also lost three straight and will be without Kelsey Plum. The Sparks have their own defensive issues, but with the game essentially priced as a toss-up, take the Los Angeles Sparks +1.5.

Total Pick: Over 181.5

The Over 181.5 is the preferred total because both defenses have been vulnerable and Los Angeles plays in a high-scoring profile. The Sparks allow 93.6 points per game while Phoenix gives up 87.4, and Los Angeles averages 89.2 points itself. Two of the first three meetings between these teams reached at least 188 combined points, including a 111-102 overtime game. Even with Plum out for Phoenix, the defensive numbers create enough scoring potential to support the high total. Take the Over 181.5.