Phoenix Mercury vs Los Angeles Sparks Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, July 22, 2026
The Phoenix Mercury visit the Los Angeles Sparks at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California, on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET, with television coverage available through WNBA League Pass and three additional regional options. Los Angeles enters as a 1.5-point home favorite, with the Sparks listed at -118 on the moneyline and Phoenix priced at -102. The total is set at 178.5 points. ESPN Analytics gives Los Angeles a 60.8% chance of winning, while Phoenix holds a 39.2% probability. Before placing any wagers on Wednesday’s matchup, be sure to check out our free WNBA Picks.
Phoenix Searches for a Stronger Road Performance
Phoenix enters Wednesday afternoon with a 9-18 overall record and a 5-9 mark away from home. The Mercury have lost four of their last five games, although they recently won over Connecticut 72-63. Before that victory, Phoenix recently lost to Connecticut 96-83, Minnesota 104-100, Las Vegas 106-58, and Indiana 92-89. Three of those four defeats came by four points or fewer or featured the Mercury scoring at least 83 points, but the 48-point loss against Las Vegas stands out as the most difficult performance of the stretch.
The Mercury are averaging 82.9 points per game while surrendering 86.7 points. Phoenix is shooting 44% from the field and averages 31.4 rebounds, 19.2 assists, 3.1 blocks, and 7.4 steals per game. The Mercury average 5.6 fewer points than Los Angeles and also trail the Sparks in field-goal percentage, assists, and steals. Phoenix does hold a slight advantage on the boards, averaging 31.4 rebounds compared with Los Angeles at 31.0.
Phoenix’s most significant weakness is its negative scoring differential. The Mercury are being outscored by an average of 3.8 points per game, and their recent results have shown how damaging the defensive end can become when the offense cannot keep pace. Phoenix has allowed at least 92 points in four of its last five games, but its latest performance was considerably stronger, holding Connecticut to 63 points. Repeating that level of defensive execution would give the Mercury a much better opportunity to remain competitive as a slight road underdog.
Los Angeles Tries to Halt Its Four-Game Slide
Los Angeles comes into this matchup with a 10-15 overall record and a 5-7 record at Crypto.com Arena. The Sparks have dropped four consecutive games and are 1-4 across their last five. Los Angeles recently lost to Dallas 90-82 after earlier defeats against Chicago 96-82, Minnesota 96-87, and Atlanta 101-92. The Sparks’ lone victory during the five-game span was a convincing 102-87 result over Chicago at home.
The Sparks average 88.5 points per game, shoot 46% from the field, and produce 20.9 assists per contest. Los Angeles also averages 31.0 rebounds, 3.1 blocks, and 7.6 steals. Defensively, however, the Sparks surrender 93.6 points per game. That is the highest points-against average between these teams and leaves Los Angeles with a negative scoring differential despite owning the more productive offense.
Los Angeles’ clearest strength is its scoring production. The Sparks average 5.6 more points than Phoenix and hold a two-percentage-point advantage from the field. They also average 1.7 more assists per game, indicating that their stronger offensive numbers are supported by better shooting and greater ball movement. The major concern is a defense that has allowed at least 90 points in four straight games. Los Angeles has the offensive profile to justify its status as the favorite, but the defense has repeatedly forced the Sparks to play high-scoring contests.
Phoenix Mercury vs Los Angeles Sparks Picks and Prediction
Phoenix Mercury vs Los Angeles Sparks Pick
- Pick: Los Angeles Sparks Moneyline
I am backing Los Angeles on the moneyline at -118. Neither team has produced an encouraging recent record, but the Sparks have the better overall scoring numbers and the home-court advantage. Los Angeles averages 88.5 points while shooting 46% from the field, compared with 82.9 points and 44% shooting for Phoenix. The Sparks also average more assists and steals, while ESPN Analytics gives them a 60.8% chance to win. Phoenix has the slightly better rebounding average and enters after a victory, but Los Angeles’ offensive advantage makes the Sparks the preferred side in a game carrying a narrow spread.
Phoenix Mercury vs Los Angeles Sparks Total Pick
- Pick: Under 178.5
I am taking the under 178.5 despite both teams carrying negative scoring differentials. Their combined offensive averages equal 171.4 points, which provides more than seven points of separation from the posted total. Phoenix’s most recent game produced only 135 total points, and the Mercury have scored fewer than 90 points in four of their last five contests. Los Angeles has reached at least 87 points in three of its last five, but it scored only 82 in each of its two most recent games. I expect the Sparks to do enough offensively to win without the teams combining to reach 179 points.
Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Sparks 89 – Phoenix Mercury 85