Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, September 17, 2025
The Phoenix Mercury (27-17), the fourth-seed in the WNBA Playoffs, are set to face off against the New York Liberty (27-17), the WNBA’s fifth-seed, on September 17th at 8:00 PM ET at the Barclays Center in WNBA Playoffs First Round Game 2 action as we look at the Mercury vs. Liberty prediction. The Liberty were able to go on the road in Game 1 and record a 76-69 overtime win over the Phoenix Mercury. Tempo and matchup notes — WNBA picks for New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury in one quick read.
Mercury Looking to Extend Their Season
The Phoenix Mercury struggled in the second half of Game 1 of the first round as they lost at home 76-69. It does not help scoring just 12 points in the fourth quarter and overtime, as the offense just went ice cold.
Offensively, the Mercury averaged 82.8 points per game. The efficiency is notable, with a field goal percentage of 43.3 and a 3-point percentage of 34.0. At the free-throw line, they have to show some improvement as they had a 78.4% success rate while doing a respectable job with their rebounds per game, finishing at 34.7. This offensive depth is going to be led by forward Satou Sabally with her 16.3 points and 5.9 rebounds per game in the regular season.
Defensively, Phoenix played well as they conceded 80.1 points per game. Opponents have shot at a respectable level against them, with a field goal percentage allowed of 42.7% and a 3-point percentage that allowed the opposition to connect on 32.1%.
Injury Report for Phoenix
- Forward DeWanna Bonner: Rest (Questionable)
- Guard Julia Ayrault: Personal (OUT)
- Guard Helena Pueyo: Personal (OUT)
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Liberty Looking for the Sweep
The New York Liberty were able to open the playoffs by going on the road and stealing the win in Game 1 in overtime 76-69 against the Phoenix Mercury. They were able to crash the glass to win as they held a 48-31 advantage in rebounding.
On offense, New York managed to score an average of 84.4 points per game in the regular season. Shooting accuracy stands at 45.3% from the field and 35.5% from the 3-point line, with a free-throw percentage of 83.7%. The offense went through veteran forward Breanna Stewart as she averaged 18.3 points and 6.5 rebounds per game during the year.
Defensively, the Liberty was holding their own, giving up 80.3 points per game with opponents shooting 42.4% from the field and 31.5% from beyond the arc.
Injury Report for New York
- Center Raquel Carrera: Personal (OUT)
- Guard Ivana Dojkic: Not Injury Related (OUT)
- Guard Betnijah Laney-Hamilton: Knee (OUT)
- Forward Seehia Ridard: Personal (OUT)
- Forward Annika Soltau: Not Injury Related (OUT)
New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury Pick
Spread Pick for New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury
- New York Liberty -145 (4 units)
The Liberty are coming in with the momentum after “stealing” Game 1 and now getting Game 2 of the series on their home court. New York was 17-5 at home during the regular season while Phoenix was 12-10 on the road. The Mercury have now lost their last four games with three of them being by single digits, so do not fear if this game is close late. New York has the postseason experience edge after losing in the 2023 WNBA Finals and winning the 2024 championship, so go with the New York Liberty to win here and sweep this series to get to Round 2.
Over/Under Pick for New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Under 159.5 (5 units)
These teams went to overtime in Game 1 and scored just 145 total points, so do not expect these offenses to dominate. The second half seemed like the defenses looked in as there were 43 total points in the third and fourth quarters. With both teams shooting sub-42% from the court in Game 1, it is difficult to expect these teams to shoot the ball at a better rate. All in all, go with under 159.5 total points to hit here.
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