Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire Picks and Prediction for Friday June 5 2026
Use Code SSWC The Phoenix Mercury and Portland Fire meet on Friday, June 5, 2026, in a WNBA Commissioner's Cup matchup at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 PM with coverage available on ION and WNBA League Pass. Phoenix enters as a slight 1.5-point favorite with a moneyline of -115, while Portland is listed at -105. The total is set at 164.5 points. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks.
Phoenix Tries to Build on a Needed Victory
The Mercury enter this contest with a 3-8 overall record and a 2-4 road mark. Despite the losing record, Phoenix is coming off a victory after recently winning over Seattle 72-68. Before that result, the Mercury recently lost to Minnesota, recently lost to New York twice, and recently lost to Atlanta. The recent win gives Phoenix an opportunity to build some momentum after a difficult stretch.
Statistically, Phoenix averages 82.0 points per game while allowing 86.1 points per contest. The Mercury shoot 41% from the field and average 32.4 rebounds and 17.6 assists per game. Defensively, they contribute 3.7 blocks and 7.9 steals per contest.
One area that stands out for Phoenix is its work on the glass. The Mercury hold a noticeable rebounding advantage over Portland based on the provided team statistics. Combined with their edge in steals, those categories could help offset some of the offensive challenges that have contributed to their record.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Portland Looks to Continue a Competitive Season
The Fire enter this matchup with a 6-5 overall record and a 4-3 home record. Portland has won three of its last five games, recently winning over Indiana, recently winning over Connecticut, and recently winning over New York. The Fire also recently lost to Golden State and recently lost to Atlanta during that span. Overall, Portland has been competitive throughout the season and enters this game above .500.
Portland averages 83.0 points per game while allowing 86.0 points per contest. The Fire are shooting 46% from the field, one of the strongest percentages in this matchup. They average 27.2 rebounds and 19.1 assists per game while also producing 4.2 blocks and 7.6 steals per contest.
The biggest strength for Portland is efficiency. The Fire average slightly more points than Phoenix while shooting 46% from the field compared to 41% for the Mercury. That shooting advantage has helped Portland maintain a winning record despite being outperformed in some of the other statistical categories.
Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire Picks and Prediction
Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury -1.5
Phoenix enters this game with the advantage in ESPN's Matchup Predictor, which gives the Mercury a 65.7% chance to win compared to 34.3% for Portland. The Mercury also hold advantages in rebounds and steals, while coming off a road victory over Seattle. Although Portland owns the better overall record, the predictive metrics and several key statistical categories lean toward Phoenix in this matchup.
Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire Total Pick
- Pick: Over 164.5
I lean toward the over in this contest. Phoenix averages 82.0 points per game while Portland averages 83.0 points per game. Those offensive averages combine to 165.0 points, which sits just above the posted total. Both teams are also allowing approximately 86 points per game, creating a reasonable path toward a score that exceeds the listed number.
Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 84 – Portland Fire 81
Betting on the WNBA?
- Find our list of our favorite WNBA sportsbooks
- Claim your promos with the best WNBA sportsbook bonuses
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
