Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 17, 2026

The Phoenix Mercury visit the Portland Fire on Thursday at Moda Center in Portland, with the opening tipoff at 10:00 PM ET and televised on WNBA League Pass. This is the first game back for both teams following the Women’s FIBA World Cup, won by the United States, and each team has four regular-season games remaining. The eight postseason spots have already been determined, so the remaining games will settle final seeding for the playoff teams. Phoenix is 14-26 and 12th overall, while Portland is 16-24 and ninth overall. Both have been eliminated from postseason contention. Phoenix beat Toronto 101-69 before the break, while Portland lost 86-69 to Golden State. Here is a closer look at our free WNBA picks.

Phoenix Mercury Coming Off a Big Home Win

Phoenix snapped a three-game losing streak with a 101-69 victory over Toronto in its final game before the break. The Mercury went 3-7 over their last 10 and average 84.2 points while allowing 87.3. Phoenix shoots 44.5% from the field and 32.7% from three while averaging 31.6 rebounds and 20.1 assists. Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury with 21.3 points per game, but her absence removes the team's top scorer from Thursday's lineup.

Alyssa Thomas becomes even more important with Copper unavailable. Thomas averages 14.2 points, 7.7 rebounds, 8.4 assists and 1.4 steals while shooting 51.2% from the field. Natasha Mack adds 8.4 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.2 blocks, while Noemie Brochant averages 6.2 points. Phoenix has averaged 13.0 turnovers per game and allows opponents to shoot 46.3%. The Mercury won the first meeting in Portland 78-72 before losing the second matchup 88-85 at home.

Injuries: Kelsey Plum (out), Kahleah Copper (out), Valeriane Ayayi (out), Kyara Linskens (out), Jovana Nogic (out).

Portland Fire Trying to Respond at Home

Portland lost four of its final five games before the World Cup break and went 5-5 over its last 10. The Fire average 86.6 points while allowing 91.1, with opponents shooting 46.5%from the field. Portland shoots 45.2% overall and 34.8% from three while averaging 30.3 rebounds and 20.6 assists. The Fire's last victory was a 101-83 road win over Atlanta before an 86-69 loss to Golden State two days later.

Carla Leite leads Portland with 15.9 points and 6.3 assists per game, but she will not play Thursday. Bridget Carleton averages 14.3 points and 4.5 rebounds while making 36.8% of her three-point attempts. Megan DiLeo adds 13.2 points on 55.2% shooting, and Emily Engstler averages 10.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks. Portland averages 14.1 turnovers, and its 30.3 rebounds per game rank below Phoenix's 31.6.

Injuries: Frieda Buhner (out), Carla Leite (out), Luisa Geiselsoder (out), Sarah Ashlee Barker (out), Sania Feagin (out).

Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire Key Player Matchup

Alyssa Thomas and Bridget Carleton become central figures with both teams missing their leading scorers. Thomas averages 14.2 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 8.4 assists and can influence the game as a scorer, rebounder, and distributor of the ball. Carleton averages 14.3 points while making 2.7 three-pointers per game and shooting 36.8% from beyond the arc. Portland needs Carleton's perimeter scoring with Leite unavailable, while Phoenix can run much of its offense through Thomas with Copper sidelined.

Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire Game Pick

• Phoenix Mercury -1.5 (-108)

Phoenix -1.5 is the pick despite Copper's absence. The Mercury closed the pre-World Cup schedule with a 32-point win over Toronto and have already won once at Moda Center this season. Thomas remains a major advantage as a distributor and rebounder, especially with Portland missing Leite, its leading scorer and assist leader. The Fire also allow 91.1 points per game and have dropped four of their last five. In a matchup between two eliminated teams, Phoenix has enough scoring and playmaking to cover the short road number.

Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire Over/Under Pick

• Under 176.5 (-112)

Under 176.5 is the pick with both offenses missing their leading scorers. Copper averages 21.3 points for Phoenix, while Leite averages 15.9 for Portland, creating major scoring gaps for each rotation. The first meeting produced only 150 combined points, while the second reached 173. Portland scored 69 in its final game before the break, and Phoenix scored 73 and 84 in two of its previous three losses. With important offensive pieces unavailable on each side, another game under 177 combined points is the play.