Phoenix vs. Minnesota Picks and Prediction for Friday, September 26, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Minnesota Lynx are heading to the PHX Arena on Friday night to battle against the Phoenix Mercury in Game 3 of the WNBA Semifinals for our Lynx vs. Mercury prediction. The series is tied at one game apiece after Phoenix won on the road in overtime 89-83, in Game 2. Minnesota has won four of the six games these teams have played against one another. On the court: WNBA predictions for Phoenix/New York winner vs. Minnesota with recent form.
Lynx Looking to Bounce Back
The Minnesota Lynx are looking to recover after an 89-83 overtime Game 2 home win against the Phoenix Mercury. The Lynx shot 34-of-75 (45.3%) overall, 7-of-28 (25.0%) from beyond the arc, and 8-of-9 (88.9%) from the charity stripe. Forward Napheesa Collier played well as in 38 minutes, she recorded 24 points, six rebounds, one assist, three steals, and two blocks. The defense had a lesser showing in the loss for Minnesota as they allowed Phoenix to shoot 41.8% throughout the game, 40.6% from distance, and 76.9% from the free-throw line.
Minnesota has been an excellent offensive team as they are first in basketball with 85.3 points per game in the playoffs. The Lynx stepped up on the defensive side of the court as they are second with 76.0 points per game allowed.
Injury Report for Minnesota
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- Guard DiJonai Carrington: Foot (OUT)
- Guard Aubrey Griffin: Knee (OUT)
- Forward Dorka Juhasz: Not Injury Related (OUT)
Mercury Looking to Take 2-1 Lead
The Phoenix Mercury stepped up in Game 2 of the WNBA Semifinals on the road with an 89-83 overtime win over the Minnesota Lynx. The Mercury shot the basketball at a great rate as they were 33-of-79 (41.8%) from the floor, 13-of-32 (40.6%) from three, and 10-of-13 (76.9%) from the free-throw line. Forward Satou Sabally led the way with 24 points, nine rebounds, and one assist in 38 minutes of action. The defense struggled a bit as Minnesota had a team shooting split of 45.3/25.0/88.9.
The Mercury have done a respectable job offensively in the postseason thus far as they are fourth in the WNBA with 78.4 points per game. The defense performed at an excellent level as they are first with 74.8 points per game against.
Injury Report for Phoenix
- Guard Julia Ayrault: Personal (OUT)
- Guard Helena Pueyo: Personal (OUT)
Phoenix vs. Minnesota Pick
Spread Pick for Phoenix vs. Minnesota
- Minnesota Lynx -175 (4 units)
The net ratings this postseason show a significant difference between these teams as the Lynx are best in postseason basketball by far with an 11.1 net rating while the Mercury are third with a 4.3 net rating entering Game 3 of the WNBA Semifinals. Minnesota had a bad defensive game, allowing 13 3-point shots to fall, to make that happen and that 3-ball is very inconsistent during the playoffs. Take the Minnesota Lynx to secure a win at home in Game 3 here.
Over/Under Pick for Phoenix vs. Minnesota
- UNDER 158.5 (5 units)
Both teams throughout the postseason are limiting shots against them as Phoenix is second in the sport with a 39.4 opposing shooting percentage while Minnesota is fourth with a 40.4 field goal percentage against. These teams hit 158 total points in Game 2 during regulation and there was a barrage of 3-point shots being made which is critical for the total,so expect it to be a correction in Game 3. All in all, go with UNDER 158.5 POINTS in this game.
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