Phoenix vs. Minnesota Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 21, 2025
The Phoenix Mercury are heading to the Target Center on Sunday evening to face off against the Minnesota Lynx in Game 1 of the WNBA Semifinals for our Mercury vs. Lynx prediction. The Mercury were able to win Game 3 on Friday against the New York Liberty at home 79-73. The Lynx are coming off a two-game sweep of the Golden State Valkyries, with the series ending on Wednesday 75-74 on the road. Minnesota won the season series 3-1 so this will be interesting. On the court: WNBA predictions for Phoenix/New York winner vs. Minnesota with recent form.
Mercury Wants to Steal Home-Court Advantage
The Phoenix Mercury were able to escape Game 3 of the first round with a 79-73 home win over the New York Liberty. The Mercury shot the basketball at a lesser rate as they were 26-of-71 (36.6%) from the floor, 9-of-24 (37.5%) from three, and 18-of-22 (81.8%) from the free-throw line. Forward Satou Sabally led the way with 23 points, 12 rebounds, three assists, two steals, and one block in 34 minutes of action. The defense did an excellent job, as New York had a team shooting split of 33.8/21.9/76.9.
The Mercury did a respectable job offensively in the postseason thus far, as they are fourth in the WNBA with 78.0 points per game. The defense performed at an excellent level as they are first with 69.7 points per game against.
Injury Report for Phoenix
- Guard Julia Ayrault: Personal (OUT)
- Guard Helena Pueyo: Personal (OUT)
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Lynx Looking to Dominate Game 1
The Minnesota Lynx are looking to build off a 75-74 Game 2 road win against the Golden State Valkyries. The Lynx shot 31-of-67 (46.3%) overall, 8-of-28 (28.6%) from beyond the arc, and 5-of-10 (50.0%) from the charity stripe. Forward Napheesa Collier played well as in 39 minutes, she recorded 24 points, seven rebounds, four assists, one steal, and three turnovers. The defense had a poor showing in the win for Minnesota as they allowed Golden State to shoot 43.8% throughout the game, 50.0% from distance, and 77.8% from the free-throw line.
Minnesota has been an excellent offensive team as they are first in basketball with 88.0 points per game in the playoffs. The Lynx stepped up on the defensive side of the court as they are second with 73.0 points per game allowed.
Injury Report for Minnesota
- Guard DiJonai Carrington: Foot (OUT)
- Guard Aubrey Griffin: Knee (OUT)
- Forward Dorka Juhasz: Not Injury Related (OUT)
Phoenix vs. Minnesota Pick
Spread Pick for Phoenix vs. Minnesota
- Minnesota Lynx -7.5 (4 units)
The Minnesota Lynx are dominant and should be able to continue doing so. There is a reason they are the top seed in the WNBA Playoffs and hold a 21-2 record when adding the postseason. Minnesota should dominate as they had an 18.9 net rating in the playoffs, while Phoenix is third with a 10.1 net rating right now. Go with the Minnesota Lynx to control Game 1 of the series with a home win as they are the better team at home here.
Over/Under Pick for Phoenix vs. Minnesota
- UNDER 158.5 (5 units)
We talked about this already, but these teams are rested from the first round and are the best defensive teams in the sport this postseason so far. Defending the perimeter shows they can do even better as the Mercury are best with just a 25.3 opposing 3-point percentage, while the Lynx are sixth with a 37.7 team percentage from beyond the arc. With these defenses flexing their muscles on the defensive side of things, go with UNDER 158.5 POINTS in this game as the better bet.
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