Phoenix vs. Minnesota Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, September 23, 2025
The Phoenix Mercury are heading to the Target Center on Tuesday evening to battle against the Minnesota Lynx in Game 2 of the WNBA Semifinals for our Mercury vs. Lynx prediction. The Lynx hold a 1-0 series lead after winning Game 1 on Sunday at home 82-69. Minnesota has won four of the five games these teams have played against one another. Tempo and matchup notes — WNBA picks for Phoenix/New York winner vs. Minnesota in one quick read.
Mercury Looking to Split the First Two Games
The Phoenix Mercury struggled in Game 1 of the WNBA Semifinals on the road with an 82-69 loss against the Minnesota Lynx. The Mercury shot the basketball at a lesser rate as they were 31-of-75 (41.3%) from the floor, 3-of-23 (13.0%) from three, and 4-of-4 (100.0%) from the free-throw line. Guard Kahleah Copper led the way with 22 points, two rebounds, and one in 37 minutes of action. The defense struggled a bit as Minnesota had a team shooting split of 44.2/31.0/83.3.
The Mercury have done a respectable job offensively in the postseason thus far as they are fifth in the WNBA with 75.8 points per game. The defense performed at an excellent level as they are second with 72.8 points per game against.
Injury Report for Phoenix
- Guard Julia Ayrault: Personal (OUT)
- Guard Helena Pueyo: Personal (OUT)
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Lynx Looking for Commanding 2-0 Advantage
The Minnesota Lynx are looking to build off an 82-69 Game 1 home win against the Phoenix Mercury. The Lynx shot 34-of-77 (44.2%) overall, 9-of-29 (31.0%) from beyond the arc, and 5-of-6 (83.3%) from the charity stripe. Guard Courtney Williams played well as in 33 minutes, she recorded 23 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, five steals, and three turnovers. The defense had a strong showing in the win for Minnesota as they allowed Phoenix to shoot 41.3% throughout the game, 13.0% from distance, and 100.0% from the free-throw line.
Minnesota has been an excellent offensive team as they are first in basketball with 86.0 points per game in the playoffs. The Lynx stepped up on the defensive side of the court as they are first with 71.7 points per game allowed.
Injury Report for Minnesota
- Guard DiJonai Carrington: Foot (OUT)
- Guard Aubrey Griffin: Knee (OUT)
- Forward Dorka Juhasz: Not Injury Related (OUT)
Phoenix vs. Minnesota Pick
Spread Pick for Phoenix vs. Minnesota
- Minnesota Lynx -7.5 (4 units)
The Minnesota Lynx are the better team and should be able to have a repeat of Game 1’s performance. They were able to dominate the second half to get momentum, only allowing 22 points in the two quarters. Minnesota had the three-headed monster of Courtney Williams, Kayla McBride, and Napheesa Collier combine to score 62 of the 82 points for the team and Phoenix does not have the defensive stalwarts to stop it. The Lynx have also been able to limit wide-open threes against them, which has been the difference. All in all, go with the Minnesota Lynx to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Phoenix vs. Minnesota
- Under 158.5 (4 units)
These defenses have the two best defensive ratings in the postseason as Phoenix is best with an 88.7 defensive rating, while Minnesota is on their tails in second place with a 92.3 defensive rating thus far. They also have struggled shooting the ball from beyond the arc as the Mercury are seventh with a 25.8 team 3-point percentage while the Lynx are fourth with a 33.3 team 3-point percentage so far. Take under 158.5 total points to be scored here.
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