Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, July 28, 2026
The Portland Fire visit the Las Vegas Aces at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET, with coverage available through WNBA League Pass and Vegas 34. Las Vegas is an 11.5-point favorite and is listed at -700 on the moneyline, while Portland is priced at +484. The total is set at 177.5 points. The Fire enter at 11-16 overall and 5-9 on the road, while the Aces are 18-8 overall and 7-5 at home. ESPN Analytics gives Las Vegas an 86.8% chance of winning, compared with 13.2% for Portland. Before making any decisions on Tuesday’s matchup, be sure to check out our free WNBA Picks.
Portland Looks to Rediscover Its Road Form
Portland enters Tuesday’s game with an 11-16 overall record and a 5-9 mark away from home. The Fire have lost three of their last five games, including a recent 101-97 loss to Dallas and a 101-93 road defeat against Minnesota. Portland recently won over Washington 75-56 before losing to Connecticut 90-87. The Fire began this five-game stretch with a 102-92 road victory over Atlanta, giving them two wins and three losses during that period.
The Fire average 85.3 points per game while allowing 90.6 points. Portland shoots 45% from the field and averages 29.3 rebounds, 20.5 assists, 3.9 blocks, and 7.6 steals per contest. Portland averages 5.7 fewer points than Las Vegas and permits 4.3 more points per game. The Fire also trail the Aces in field-goal percentage, rebounds, assists, and blocks, although they hold a slight advantage in steals.
Portland’s most significant weakness in this matchup is its combination of defensive production and rebounding. The Fire are being outscored by an average of 5.3 points per game and average five fewer rebounds than Las Vegas. They have also surrendered at least 90 points in four of their last five games. Portland demonstrated its defensive potential by holding Washington to 56 points, but it allowed 101 points in each of its two most recent contests. That inconsistency could be costly against a Las Vegas team averaging 91.0 points.
Las Vegas Seeks a Strong Response at Home
Las Vegas returns to Michelob ULTRA Arena with an 18-8 overall record and a 7-5 home mark. The Aces have won three of their last five games, although they recently lost to Washington 100-99. Before that defeat, Las Vegas earned a commanding 109-83 road victory over Toronto. The Aces previously lost to Indiana 109-75, defeated Phoenix 106-58 at home, and won over Portland 88-80 on the road.
The Aces average 91.0 points per game while allowing 86.3 points. Las Vegas shoots 49% from the field and averages 34.3 rebounds, 22.5 assists, 5.1 blocks, and 7.2 steals per contest. The Aces hold the statistical advantage over Portland in nearly every supplied category. They score more, allow fewer points, shoot four percentage points better, collect five more rebounds, distribute two more assists, and average 1.2 more blocks per game.
Las Vegas’ greatest strength is its offensive efficiency. The Aces’ 49% field-goal percentage accompanies a scoring average of 91.0 points, and they have reached at least 99 points in three of their last four games. Las Vegas is outscoring opponents by an average of 4.7 points per contest, creating a 10-point difference between the teams’ average scoring margins. The Aces also defeated Portland 88-80 during their recent five-game stretch, although that eight-point margin fell short of Tuesday’s 11.5-point spread.
Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction
Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces Pick
- Pick: Portland Fire +11.5
Portland is the preferred side with 11.5 points. Las Vegas owns the stronger overall record, the superior statistical profile, and an overwhelming advantage in the matchup predictor, but the supplied results provide a reason to take the points. The Aces recently defeated the Fire by eight, which would have allowed Portland to cover Tuesday’s spread. Las Vegas is also 7-5 at home rather than dominant in that setting, while Portland has scored at least 87 points in four of its last five games. The Aces should have the advantage, but Portland’s recent offensive production gives the Fire a reasonable opportunity to remain within 11 points.
Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces Total Pick
- Pick: Over 177.5
I am taking the over 177.5 because the teams combine to average 176.3 points per game, placing their scoring production close to the listed number. Portland’s last five contests produced combined totals of 198, 194, 131, 177, and 194 points, with three clearing Tuesday’s total. Four of Las Vegas’ last five games also reached at least 182 combined points. Portland has allowed 101 points in consecutive games, while Las Vegas has scored 99 or more in three of its last four. Those recent results provide enough support for a game that finishes above 177.5.
Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 96 – Portland Fire 87