Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Sunday, August 16, 2026

The Portland Fire travel to Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona, to face the Phoenix Mercury on Sunday, August 16, 2026, with tipoff scheduled for 7:00 PM ET. ESPN and Disney+ will provide coverage. Portland enters at 14-20 overall and 6-10 on the road, while Phoenix is 13-22 overall and 5-10 at home. The Mercury are 5.5-point favorites at -105 with a -218 moneyline, while Portland is +5.5 at -115 and +180 on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 176.5 points. Before making your wagers, check out our free WNBA picks for more WNBA predictions and analysis.

Portland Finding Ways to Stay Competitive

Portland comes into Sunday's game at 14-20 overall and 6-10 away from home. The Fire have won three of their last four and are 3-2 across their last five games. Portland's recent victories came 84-82 at Seattle, 100-93 over Seattle, and 97-83 over Toronto. Its two losses during that stretch came 85-81 against Minnesota and 106-101 against Los Angeles.

The Fire average 86.7 points per game while allowing 91.3 points. Portland is shooting 45% from the field and averaging 30.3 rebounds and 20.9 assists per game. The Fire also average 3.7 blocks and 7.4 steals.

Portland's offense gives it a legitimate chance to stay inside the number. The Fire average 2.8 more points per game than Phoenix and have a slight edge in field-goal percentage and assists. The concern is a defense surrendering more than 91 points per game. Portland has nevertheless been the better team recently, and three victories in four games make a 5.5-point spread significant in this matchup.

Phoenix Returns Home Looking for Momentum

Phoenix enters at 13-22 overall with a 5-10 home record. The Mercury are 2-3 over their last five games but enter off a 94-87 victory over Los Angeles. Their other victory during this stretch was a 106-101 win at Chicago, while Phoenix lost to Washington, Connecticut, and Atlanta.

The Mercury are averaging 83.9 points per game while allowing 87.4. Phoenix shoots 44% from the field and averages 31.5 rebounds and 19.9 assists per game. The Mercury also produce 3.3 blocks and 7.3 steals per contest.

Phoenix's primary advantage is on the defensive side. The Mercury allow 3.9 fewer points per game than Portland and have a slight 31.5-to-30.3 advantage on the glass. Phoenix also won the first meeting between these teams 78-72. However, the Mercury's 5-10 home record and lower season scoring average make laying 5.5 points less appealing against a Portland team that has recently been playing competitive basketball.

Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction

Pick: Portland Fire +5.5

Portland +5.5 is the preferred side. Phoenix won the first meeting and owns the better season-long defensive numbers, but Portland has the better overall record and has won three of its last four. The Fire also average 86.7 points per game compared with 83.9 for Phoenix and hold small advantages in shooting percentage and assists. With neither team possessing a strong home or road profile, getting more than five points with the more productive offense provides value.

Pick: Over 176.5

Take Over 176.5. Portland's season-long scoring and defensive averages combine for 178.0 points, while Phoenix's combine for 171.3. The Fire's defensive weakness is particularly important, as they allow 91.3 points per game. Portland has also scored at least 97 points in three of its last five games, while Phoenix has reached 94 or more in two of its last five. If Portland's recent offensive production continues, these teams have a path beyond 176.5.