Seattle Storm vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 20 2026

The Seattle Storm visit the Las Vegas Aces at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET with coverage on USA Network, CNBC and Vegas 34. Seattle enters at 8-33 overall and just 2-18 on the road, while Las Vegas is 28-13 overall and 13-7 at home. The Aces have won four straight and lead the season series 2-0, including a dominant 114-77 victory over Seattle on September 17. ESPN Analytics gives Las Vegas an 87.4% matchup probability compared with 12.6% for Seattle. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks for more WNBA predictions throughout the season.

Seattle Faces Another Difficult Matchup

Seattle enters Sunday with the worst record in the Western Conference at 8-33 and has lost four of its last five games. The Storm's only victory during that stretch was a 90-78 win, while their four losses came by margins of 37, 16, 22 and two points. Seattle has scored 391 points across those five games, an average of 78.2 per game, while surrendering 456 for an average of 91.2. The Storm are also only 2-18 away from home, making this a difficult spot against one of the conference's strongest teams.

The full-season statistics show the same problems. Seattle averages 82.7 points while allowing 88.8, giving the Storm a negative scoring differential of 6.1 points per game. They shoot only 42% from the field and average 33.9 rebounds, 19.2 assists, 4.5 blocks and 7.8 steals. The rebounding and defensive activity numbers are respectable, but the combination of inefficient shooting and 88.8 points allowed has made it difficult for Seattle to consistently turn those areas into victories.

The head-to-head results are particularly concerning. Seattle lost 101-91 in Las Vegas in the first meeting and was then overwhelmed 114-77 at home on September 17. That means the Storm have been outscored 215-168 through two meetings, an average margin of 23.5 points per game. Seattle also enters Sunday with multiple absences, further complicating a matchup against an opponent that already demonstrated a substantial statistical and head-to-head advantage.

Las Vegas Carries a Four-Game Winning Streak

Las Vegas enters at 28-13 and sits third in the Western Conference, three games behind first-place Minnesota. The Aces have won four consecutive games and four of their last five overall. Their victories during that span came by scores of 114-77, 93-73, 88-78 and 101-78. The only loss was a 97-82 defeat. Across those five contests, Las Vegas has scored 478 points and allowed 403, producing averages of 95.6 points scored and 80.6 allowed.

The season-long numbers are equally impressive. Las Vegas averages 91.2 points per game while surrendering 86.3, giving the Aces a positive scoring differential of 4.9 points. They shoot 48% from the field compared with Seattle's 42%, while averaging 33.7 rebounds, 22.0 assists, 4.9 blocks and 7.0 steals. Seattle owns tiny advantages in rebounding and steals, but Las Vegas holds substantial edges in offensive efficiency, scoring and passing.

The biggest concern with laying a potentially large spread is simply determining how high is too high. Las Vegas won the first meeting by 10 and the second by 37, while three of its four victories during the current winning streak have come by at least 20 points. Seattle, meanwhile, has suffered three losses by 16 or more during its last five. Las Vegas has been the considerably stronger team on both ends, owns a 13-7 home record and has already controlled this matchup twice.

Seattle Storm vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction

Pick: Las Vegas Aces -12.5 or Better

Without a confirmed spread in the supplied information, Las Vegas -12.5 or better is the target for the side. The Aces have outscored Seattle by 47 points through two meetings and just beat the Storm 114-77 three days before this matchup. Las Vegas is averaging 95.6 points over its last five games while Seattle is allowing 91.2 during its corresponding five-game stretch. The Aces also own the major shooting advantage at 48% to 42% and have won three of their last four games by at least 20 points. The number matters with a favorite this large, but anything at -12.5 or below keeps Las Vegas playable.

Pick: Over 170.5 or Lower

The Over 170.5 or lower gets the total lean. The first two meetings produced 192 and 191 combined points, and Las Vegas enters this matchup with its offense running at an extremely high level. The Aces have scored at least 88 points in each game during their four-game winning streak and have averaged 95.6 across their last five. Seattle's defensive struggles create the clearest route to the Over, especially after allowing Las Vegas to score 114 in the September 17 meeting. Seattle does not necessarily need an explosive offensive performance if Las Vegas again approaches triple digits, making 170.5 the highest number at which the Over remains attractive.

Final Picks: Las Vegas Aces -12.5 or Better and Over 170.5 or Lower