Seattle Storm vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Thursday July 2 2026
The Seattle Storm travel to Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona, on Thursday, July 2, 2026, to face the Phoenix Mercury. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 PM ET, with coverage available on WNBA League Pass. Phoenix is a 5.5-point favorite with a -225 moneyline, while Seattle is listed at +185. The total is set at 167.5 points. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks.
Seattle Searches for Back-to-Back Road Wins
The Storm enter this matchup with a 5-15 overall record and a 1-8 record on the road. Seattle has won two of its last five games, recently defeating Atlanta 105-90 and New York 99-88 after previously losing in overtime to Dallas, falling to Phoenix 93-73, and dropping a 94-89 decision at Portland. While the overall record has been difficult, the Storm have shown improvement over the past two contests.
Seattle averages 81.1 points per game while allowing 86.2 points. The Storm are shooting 43% from the field, averaging 32.1 rebounds and 19.0 assists per contest. Defensively, they contribute 4.5 blocks and 7.1 steals per game.
Seattle's biggest statistical advantage is its interior defense. The Storm average more blocks than Phoenix while also allowing slightly fewer points per game. If Seattle can continue protecting the basket while building on its recent offensive performances, it has a chance to remain competitive.
Phoenix Aims to Continue Its Recent Success
The Mercury come into Thursday night's game with a 7-13 overall record and a 2-6 home record. Phoenix has won three of its last five games, recently defeating Toronto 89-80 and Indiana 111-109 after splitting two previous meetings with Indiana and earning a 93-73 victory over Seattle. The Mercury have been playing better basketball during this stretch after an earlier loss to Las Vegas.
Phoenix averages 84.0 points per game while allowing 86.8 points. The Mercury shoot 44% from the field while averaging 31.9 rebounds and 19.3 assists per contest. Defensively, they average 3.6 blocks and 7.6 steals each game.
The biggest strength for Phoenix is its scoring ability. The Mercury average nearly three more points per game than Seattle while also shooting a slightly better percentage from the field. That offensive edge has been reflected in three victories over the last five games, including the earlier win against Seattle.
Seattle Storm vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction
Seattle Storm vs Phoenix Mercury Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury -5.5
I'll back Phoenix to cover the spread. The Mercury already defeated Seattle 93-73 in the previous meeting provided, and they enter this matchup having won three of their last five games. Phoenix also averages more points per game while shooting a slightly higher percentage from the field. Those advantages make the Mercury the stronger side based strictly on the provided information.
Seattle Storm vs Phoenix Mercury Total Pick
- Pick: Under 167.5
I like the under in this matchup. Seattle averages 81.1 points per game while Phoenix averages 84.0, putting their combined season scoring average below the listed total. Their previous meeting also finished with 166 total points, and both teams are allowing more than 86 points per game. Based solely on the information provided, I think this game finishes just under the total.
Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 86 – Seattle Storm 79