Toronto Tempo vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction for Friday August 28 2026

The Toronto Tempo travel to Las Vegas, Nevada, to face the Las Vegas Aces at Michelob ULTRA Arena on Friday, August 28, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET, with coverage on ION, WNBA League Pass, and TSN. Toronto enters the matchup at 11-27 overall and 4-14 on the road, while Las Vegas is 26-13 overall and 12-7 at home. The Aces are 15.5-point favorites, with the total set at 178.5 points. Las Vegas is -1450 on the moneyline, while Toronto is +850. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks for more predictions and analysis.

Toronto Searching for Answers on the Road

Toronto enters Friday's matchup having lost four of its last five games. The Tempo were beaten 90-78 by Seattle in their most recent contest after falling 88-78 to Las Vegas on August 23. Their only victory during this stretch came in an 82-79 win over Portland, while additional losses came against Washington and Indiana.

The Tempo are averaging 87.0 points per game while allowing 93.6 points per contest. Toronto shoots 44% from the field and averages 31.6 rebounds, 19.9 assists, 3.2 blocks and 6.9 steals per game. Those numbers show an offense capable of respectable production, but the defensive side has been a much bigger problem.

Toronto has also struggled badly away from home, going just 4-14 on the road. The Tempo have already lost twice to Las Vegas this season, including a 109-83 defeat in the first meeting and an 88-78 loss just five days before this matchup. That recent familiarity does not necessarily work in Toronto's favor, especially with the series now shifting to Las Vegas.

Las Vegas Has Clear Statistical Advantages

Las Vegas comes into this game at 26-13 and has won three of its last five contests. The Aces defeated Toronto 88-78 in their most recent game and also handled Connecticut 101-78. Their other win during this stretch came against Washington, while losses came against Atlanta and Minnesota.

The Aces average 90.5 points per game while allowing 86.9, giving them a positive scoring differential of 3.6 points per contest. Las Vegas is shooting 48% from the field and averages 33.5 rebounds and 21.9 assists per game. The Aces also hold an edge defensively, allowing nearly seven fewer points per game than Toronto.

Las Vegas has also been the superior team in both previous head-to-head meetings. The first matchup finished 109-83, a 26-point Aces victory, while the second ended 88-78. Toronto kept the rematch much closer, but the Tempo are now dealing with another road game against a Las Vegas team that has been much stronger overall.

Toronto Tempo vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction

Pick: Las Vegas Aces -15.5

The spread is large, but Las Vegas has enough advantages to justify laying the points. Toronto is just 4-14 on the road, has lost four of its last five games, and is allowing 93.6 points per contest. Las Vegas already beat Toronto by 26 points earlier this season and has the much better defensive profile. The recent 10-point meeting is the main reason for caution, but moving this matchup to Las Vegas should improve the Aces' chances of creating separation. Take Las Vegas -15.5.

Pick: Under 178.5

The Under looks like the better total play. The most recent meeting between these teams finished with only 166 combined points, and Las Vegas has held three of its last five opponents to 78 points or fewer. Toronto has also scored exactly 78 points in each of its last two games. With Las Vegas likely to control the game and Toronto missing the offensive ceiling needed to consistently push the pace, this matchup has a reasonable path to staying below 178.5. Take Under 178.5.