Toronto Tempo vs Minnesota Lynx Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, July 28, 2026

The Toronto Tempo visit the Minnesota Lynx at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET, with coverage available on WNBA League Pass and TSN. Minnesota is a 15.5-point favorite and is listed at -1300 on the moneyline, while Toronto is priced at +740. The total is set at 184.5 points. The Tempo enter at 10-16 overall and 4-6 on the road, while the Lynx are 22-6 overall and 10-4 at home. ESPN Analytics gives Minnesota a 78.4% chance of winning, compared with 21.6% for Toronto. Before making any decisions on Tuesday’s matchup, be sure to check out our free WNBA Picks.

Toronto Faces a Steep Test Away from Home

Toronto enters this matchup with a 10-16 overall record and a 4-6 mark on the road. The Tempo have lost four of their last five games, including a recent 109-83 loss to Las Vegas and a 111-92 defeat against Atlanta. Toronto also lost to Washington 79-62 after earning a 93-91 victory over New York. The five-game stretch began with a 108-95 loss to Dallas, giving Toronto one victory and four defeats during that span.

The Tempo average 88.5 points per game while allowing 92.9 points. They shoot 45% from the field and average 31.1 rebounds, 20.0 assists, 3.2 blocks, and 7.2 steals per contest. Toronto’s scoring average is only three points below Minnesota’s, but the defensive difference is much larger. The Tempo allow 10.1 more points per game than the Lynx and also trail Minnesota in every supplied team-stat category.

Toronto’s clearest weakness is its defensive production. The Tempo are being outscored by an average of 4.4 points per game, and each of their last five opponents reached at least 79 points. Three of those opponents scored more than 100, including 109 points by Las Vegas, 111 by Atlanta, and 108 by Dallas. That vulnerability is particularly concerning against a Minnesota offense averaging 91.5 points and coming off five consecutive performances of at least 86 points.

Minnesota Carries Its Winning Run Back to Target Center

Minnesota brings a 22-6 overall record and a 10-4 home mark into Tuesday’s contest. The Lynx have won each of their last five games, recently earning consecutive road victories over Seattle by scores of 86-76 and 105-102. Before those wins, Minnesota defeated Portland 101-93, Los Angeles 96-87, and Phoenix 104-100. Four of those five victories came with the Lynx scoring at least 96 points.

The Lynx average 91.5 points per game and allow 82.8 points, producing a positive scoring margin of 8.7 points. Minnesota shoots 48% from the field while averaging 35.5 rebounds, 21.5 assists, 4.9 blocks, and 9.0 steals per game. The Lynx hold statistical advantages over Toronto in scoring, field-goal percentage, rebounding, assists, blocks, steals, and points allowed.

Minnesota’s greatest strength in the supplied data is its complete statistical advantage. The Lynx combine the better offense with a defense allowing 10.1 fewer points per game than Toronto. They also shoot three percentage points better from the field and average 4.4 more rebounds. That balance has been reflected in their current five-game winning streak, during which they have won both higher-scoring contests and games in which their defense kept the opponent below 90 points.

Toronto Tempo vs Minnesota Lynx Picks and Prediction

Toronto Tempo vs Minnesota Lynx Pick

• Pick: Minnesota Lynx -15.5

Minnesota is the preferred side despite the substantial spread. The Lynx own the superior overall and home records, have won five consecutive games, and hold the advantage in every supplied team-stat category. Toronto has lost four of its last five, with three of those defeats coming by at least 13 points. The Tempo recently lost by 26 points to Las Vegas and 19 points to Atlanta, while Minnesota’s scoring and defensive averages indicate a much stronger overall profile. ESPN Analytics also gives the Lynx a commanding 78.4% chance to win.

Toronto Tempo vs Minnesota Lynx Total Pick

• Pick: Under 184.5

I am taking the under 184.5. Toronto and Minnesota combine to average 180.0 points per game, which falls 4.5 points below the listed total. Minnesota’s defense allows only 82.8 points per contest, and the Lynx held Seattle to 76 points in their most recent game. Toronto has scored 83 points or fewer in three of its last five contests, including 62 against Washington. Although both teams have participated in several high-scoring games recently, the total requires a performance above their combined scoring averages.

Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Lynx 99 – Toronto Tempo 82