Washington Mystics vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Tuesday August 25 2026

The Washington Mystics travel to the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona, to face the Phoenix Mercury on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 PM ET with coverage on WNBA League Pass. Washington enters the matchup at 22-15 overall and 9-8 on the road, while Phoenix is 13-24 overall and just 5-12 at home. The Mystics are currently 3.5-point favorites, with the total set at 165.5. Washington is listed at -155 on the moneyline, while Phoenix is +130. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks throughout the season for more basketball betting predictions and analysis.

Mystics Bringing the Better Form

Washington comes into this matchup having won three of its last four games and 3-2 over its last five overall. The Mystics are coming off a 105-100 road victory and have also posted recent wins by scores of 93-82 and 80-70. Their two defeats in this stretch came against stronger opposition by scores of 94-84 and 83-76.

Washington averages 82.6 points per game while allowing 83.1. The Mystics shoot 45% from the field and hold an especially significant advantage on the glass, averaging 37.8 rebounds per game compared with only 31.7 for Phoenix. Washington also averages 19.5 assists, 3.9 blocks and 5.5 steals.

The Mystics already have evidence that this matchup works in their favor. Washington defeated Phoenix 95-75 on August 9, winning that game by 20 points. The Mystics now travel west, but their 9-8 road record is still considerably more encouraging than Phoenix's 5-12 home mark.

Mercury Searching for an Answer

Phoenix enters this game at 13-24 and has lost four of its last five contests. The Mercury's only victory during that stretch came in a 94-87 result, while the losses included scores of 99-89, 88-85, 95-75 and 75-72. Phoenix has dropped two straight entering Tuesday night.

The Mercury average 84.0 points per game but allow 87.8, resulting in one of the clearest statistical concerns in this matchup. Phoenix shoots 44% from the floor while averaging 31.7 rebounds, 19.9 assists, 3.2 blocks and 7.2 steals. The Mercury do generate more steals than Washington, but the Mystics have significant advantages in rebounding and defensive scoring.

Phoenix also enters this matchup with a notable absence, as Kelsey Plum is listed out with a calf injury. That becomes important against a Washington team that has been playing its best basketball recently and already demonstrated its ability to control this matchup earlier in August.

Washington Mystics vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction

Pick: Washington Mystics -3.5

Washington is the more trustworthy side at this number. The Mystics are 22-15 compared with Phoenix's 13-24, have won three of their last four, and already defeated the Mercury by 20 points earlier this month. Washington's enormous 37.8 to 31.7 rebounding advantage is particularly attractive because it should help the Mystics control possessions and limit Phoenix's opportunities for second-chance points. With Phoenix only 5-12 at home and missing an important offensive contributor, Washington -3.5 is the preferred side.

Pick: Over 165.5

The total is low enough to make the over attractive despite Washington's ability to defend. Phoenix games have produced 188, 173, 181 and 170 combined points in four of the Mercury's last five contests, while Washington's latest two games finished with 205 and 178 combined points. The Mystics just scored 105 and have reached at least 93 points in two of their last three wins, while Phoenix averages 84.0 points despite its defensive problems. Washington should have an efficient offensive night, and Phoenix only needs to contribute enough to push this past the mid-160s. Over 165.5 is the total pick.