Argentina vs. Egypt Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Use Code SSWC Argentina and Egypt meet in the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, on Tuesday at 12:00 PM ET on FOX. Argentina went 3-0-0 in Group J before surviving Cape Verde 3-2 after extra time in the Round of 32, while Egypt advanced after defeating Australia 4-2 on penalties following a 1-1 draw. Argentina averages 2.75 goals per match, while Egypt averages 1.50 goals per match. Check out today’s free World Cup picks.
Argentina Looking to Avoid Another Scare
Argentina has been one of the most productive attacking teams in the tournament, averaging 2.75 goals and 2.04 expected goals per match. Lionel Messi leads the way with seven goals in four appearances, while Lautaro Martínez has added one goal. Argentina has won every match so far, beating Algeria 3-0, Austria 2-0, Jordan 3-1, and Cape Verde 3-2.
The concern is that Argentina needed extra time to get past Cape Verde after struggling to finish the match in regulation. The defending champions held 64% possession in the tournament and still created enough chances to remain dangerous, but this attack has leaned heavily on Messi. Alexis Mac Allister, Lisandro Martínez, and Facundo Medina have each recorded one assist, giving Argentina some secondary creation.
Argentina has also been strong defensively, allowing 0.75 goals per match with two clean sheets. The team has allowed only 0.60 expected goals against per game, which is one of the better marks remaining in the knockout stage. Argentina's +1.4 expected goal differential shows a clear advantage over Egypt entering this matchup.
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Injuries: No injuries have been reported for Argentina.
Egypt Looking to Extend Historic Run
Egypt reached the Round of 16 after a dramatic penalty shootout win over Australia. The Pharaohs are averaging 1.50 goals per match while creating 1.13 expected goals per game. Emam Ashour leads Egypt with two goals, while Mohamed Salah and Mostafa Mohamed have each scored once during the tournament.
Salah remains Egypt's most important attacking player, leading the team with two assists and ranking among the tournament's top chance creators. Egypt has scored six goals in four matches, but the expected goals profile is still modest. The Pharaohs will likely need Salah to create something in transition or from a set piece if they are going to trouble Argentina.
Egypt has allowed 1.00 goal per match and has not recorded a clean sheet. The bigger concern is the expected goals against number, with Egypt allowing 1.56 per game and posting a -0.4 expected goal differential. That puts major pressure on the back line against Messi and an Argentina side that has created steady chances throughout the tournament.
Injuries: No injuries have been reported for Egypt.
Recent Head-to-Head
Argentina and Egypt have met once. Argentina won that 2008 international friendly 2-0. This will be the first World Cup meeting between the two nations.
Argentina vs. Egypt Match Pick
- Argentina -1.5 (+105)
Argentina is the stronger side and has the attacking edge, even after the tense finish against Cape Verde. Messi has been the best player in the matchup by a wide margin, and Argentina's expected goal numbers are much stronger than Egypt's on both ends. Egypt deserves credit for getting past Australia, but this is a much tougher opponent with more possession, more scoring options, and a better defensive profile. Argentina should control the ball, create the better chances, and eventually separate if Egypt has to chase the game in the second half.
Argentina vs. Egypt Over/Under Pick
- Under 2.5 Goals (-120)
The under is the better total play because both teams are coming off 120-minute matches, and Egypt is likely to keep numbers behind the ball for long stretches. Argentina has scored plenty in this tournament, but the Cape Verde match needed extra time to reach five total goals, and markets are settled after regulation. Egypt has created only 1.13 expected goals per match, while Argentina has allowed just 0.60 expected goals against per game. Expect Argentina to control the match, but the pace should be measured enough for the under to cash.
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