Brazil vs Japan Picks and Prediction for Monday, June 29, 2026
Use Code SSWC Brazil and Japan meet in the FIFA World Cup Round of 32 at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, on Monday at 1:00 PM ET on FOX. Brazil finished first in Group C with seven points after beating Haiti and Scotland while drawing Morocco. Japan advanced from Group F unbeaten after drawing the Netherlands and Sweden around a 4-0 win over Tunisia. Brazil has won four of its last five matches, while Japan has three wins and two draws over that same span. Check out today’s free World Cup picks.
Brazil Looking Like a True Contender
Brazil enters the knockout stage in excellent form after back-to-back 3-0 wins over Haiti and Scotland. The Seleção have scored seven goals through three World Cup matches while conceding only once. Brazil is averaging 2.33 goals per match with a strong 2.92 expected goals average, showing that the attack has created consistent high-quality chances.
Vinícius Júnior has been the star of the tournament for Brazil with four goals and one assist in three appearances. Matheus Cunha has added three goals, while Bruno Guimarães leads the team with three assists. Brazil's midfield has controlled long stretches of matches, and the back line has posted two clean sheets while holding opponents to just 0.92 expected goals per game.
Brazil also brings strong recent form into Houston. The Seleção have scored 15 goals across their last five matches, including wins over Scotland, Haiti, Egypt, and Panama. Carlo Ancelotti's side has shown balance, patience, and finishing quality, making Brazil one of the toughest teams left in the field.
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Injuries/Suspensions: No injuries or suspensions have been reported for Brazil.
Japan Ready to Test Another Favorite
Japan has been one of the most disciplined teams in the tournament. The Samurai Blue opened with a 2-2 draw against the Netherlands, followed with a dominant 4-0 win over Tunisia, and then secured a 1-1 draw against Sweden to reach the knockout stage. Japan has scored seven goals in three World Cup matches while conceding three.
Daichi Kamada and Ayase Ueda have each scored twice, while Keito Nakamura and Ritsu Doan have helped create chances in wide areas. Japan's attack is not as explosive as Brazil's, but the team moves well without the ball and has enough pace to punish mistakes. Japan is averaging 1.28 expected goals per match, but its strength is the defensive structure.
Japan has not lost in its last five matches and has allowed only three goals during that run. Wins over England and Iceland before the tournament showed this group can handle elite opposition. Japan also beat Brazil 3-2 in a 2025 friendly, giving the Samurai Blue confidence that they can compete in this matchup.
Injuries/Suspensions: No injuries or suspensions have been reported for Japan.
Recent Head-to-Head
Brazil has dominated the recent series, winning four of the last five meetings. However, Japan won the most recent matchup 3-2 in October 2025. Brazil won the previous four meetings by a combined 12-1 score, including victories in 2022, 2017, 2014, and the 2013 Confederations Cup.
Brazil vs Japan Match Pick
- Brazil Moneyline (-135)
Brazil is the play because of its attacking depth, tournament experience, and defensive control. Japan is organized enough to keep this competitive, but Brazil has the stronger individual talent in the final third. Vinícius Júnior has been outstanding, Cunha has finished chances well, and Guimarães gives Brazil a reliable creator from midfield. Japan's counterattacking threat should create a few nervous moments, but Brazil has conceded only one goal in the tournament and has controlled the expected goals battle in every match. Brazil should advance behind another composed performance.
Brazil vs Japan Over/Under Pick
- Under 2.5 Goals (-130)
This matchup has enough attacking talent to get dangerous, but the knockout setting points toward a tighter game. Brazil has allowed only one goal through three World Cup matches, while Japan has built its run on structure, compact defending, and quick transitions. Japan will likely sit deeper than usual and try to limit space behind the back line. Brazil should control possession, but the Seleção may not force the tempo if they grab a lead. With elimination at stake and both teams capable defensively, a 1-0 or 2-0 Brazil win will cash under.
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