Brazil vs. Norway Picks and Prediction for Sunday, July 5, 2026
Brazil faces Norway in the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Sunday at 4:00 PM ET on FOX. Brazil advanced after defeating Japan 2-1 in the Round of 32 with a late winner, while Norway earned its place by eliminating Ivory Coast 2-1 in the Round of 32. Brazil has won four of its last five matches, while Norway has also impressed during its return to the World Cup knockout stage. A place in the quarterfinals is on the line as two talented squads meet in one of the tournament's most intriguing matchups. Build your bankroll with our free World Cup picks.
Brazil Carry Championship Expectations
Brazil continues to showcase one of the tournament's strongest attacking groups, averaging 2.25 goals per match while producing 3.02 expected goals per game. Vinícius Júnior leads the way with four goals in four World Cup appearances, while Matheus Cunha has added three goals. Bruno Guimarães has created plenty of chances with four assists, and Brazil's attack has scored eight goals across its four World Cup matches. Brazil defeated Scotland 3-0, Haiti 3-0, and Japan 2-1 after drawing Morocco 1-1, showing the ability to create scoring chances against a variety of opponents.
Brazil has also performed well defensively, allowing only 0.50 goals per match while recording two clean sheets and posting an 85% save percentage. The squad has controlled possession at 56% throughout the tournament and owns a +2.2 expected goal differential, highlighting how consistently Brazil has dictated matches. Although Japan pushed Brazil late in the Round of 32, the South Americans have conceded only two goals through four World Cup matches and continue to limit quality opportunities.
Injuries: No injuries have been reported for Brazil.
Norway Looking to Continue Surprise Run
Norway has enjoyed an impressive return to the World Cup after a 28-year absence. The Norwegians average 2.50 goals per match while generating 2.08 expected goals. Erling Haaland has lived up to expectations with five goals in the tournament, while Antonio Nusa has added one goal. Martin Ødegaard has contributed three assists, and Norway's attack has consistently threatened opponents with quick transitions and direct finishing. The tournament began with a convincing 4-1 victory over Iraq, and Norway followed that by advancing from Group I before defeating Ivory Coast 2-1 in the Round of 32.
Norway has allowed 2.00 goals per match and has yet to record a clean sheet during the tournament, but the squad has continued to compete by responding with timely goals. The Norwegians average 50% possession while carrying a +0.7 expected goal differential, showing they remain dangerous even without dominating the ball. Haaland's finishing ability gives Norway a chance in any match, especially if the midfield can create space for him against Brazil's experienced back line.
Injuries: No injuries have been reported for Norway.
Recent Head-to-Head
Norway has never lost to Brazil in international competition. The nations played to a 1-1 draw in an international friendly in 2006, while Norway earned a memorable 2-1 victory during the 1998 FIFA World Cup. Although the meetings have been limited, Norway has enjoyed success whenever these teams have met on the international stage.
Brazil vs. Norway Match Pick
- Brazil -0.5 (-120)
Brazil brings the deeper squad and enters this match playing excellent football on both ends of the pitch. Vinícius Júnior, Cunha, and Bruno Guimarães have helped create one of the tournament's most productive attacks, while Brazil has conceded only two goals through four World Cup matches. Norway has enough firepower with Haaland to stay competitive, but Brazil has been more consistent throughout the tournament and owns advantages in possession, expected goals, and overall squad depth. Expect Brazil to secure a place in the quarterfinals with a victory in regulation.
Brazil vs. Norway Over/Under Pick
- Over 2.5 Goals (-130)
Both teams have produced strong attacking numbers throughout the tournament. Brazil averages 2.25 goals per match and has scored at least two goals in three of its four World Cup matches, while Norway averages 2.50 goals per contest behind Haaland's five-goal tournament. Norway has not recorded a clean sheet, and Brazil's attack should create multiple quality chances. Norway has enough finishing ability to contribute on the scoreboard, making the over the stronger play in this Round of 16 matchup.