Canada vs. Morocco Picks and Prediction for Saturday, July 4, 2026
Use Code SSWC Canada and Morocco meet in the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, on Saturday at 1:00 PM ET on FOX. Canada reached this stage after a 1-0 Round of 32 victory over South Africa and has now won two straight World Cup matches. Morocco advanced after eliminating the Netherlands on penalties following a 1-1 draw and continues to build on its strong tournament reputation. Both teams have impressed defensively, setting up one of the more competitive Round of 16 matchups. Win big with our free World Cup picks.
Canada Looking to Continue Historic Run
Canada has already made history by reaching the World Cup Round of 16, and Jesse Marsch's squad has shown it belongs on this stage. The Canadians have won two of their last three tournament matches, including a 6-0 victory over Qatar in the group stage before edging South Africa 1-0 in the Round of 32. Their only defeat came against Switzerland in a narrow 2-1 result.
Jonathan David has led the attack with three tournament goals, while Cyle Larin has added two. Stephen Eustáquio continues to control the midfield, and Niko Saliba has chipped in with two assists. Canada averages 2.25 goals per match while generating 2.22 expected goals, showing the attack has consistently created quality opportunities. Defensively, Canada has conceded only three goals in four matches while posting two clean sheets.
Canada has also looked comfortable playing in front of home-region crowds throughout the tournament. The midfield has done an excellent job controlling possession at 57%, and the defense has limited opponents to just 0.61 expected goals conceded per match. If Canada can maintain that defensive discipline while allowing David and Larin opportunities in transition, another upset is certainly possible.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Injuries: No injuries have been reported for Canada.
Morocco Bringing Knockout Experience
Morocco continues to prove why it remains one of the strongest international sides outside the traditional European and South American powers. After another impressive group stage, the Atlas Lions eliminated the Netherlands in the Round of 32 and now enter the Round of 16 with confidence and valuable knockout experience.
Ismael Saibari has scored three goals during the tournament, while Brahim Díaz has contributed two assists. Achraf Hakimi continues to influence matches from right-back with both defensive stability and attacking support, while Soufiane Rahimi adds another dangerous option in the final third. Morocco averages 1.75 goals while producing an impressive 2.51 expected goals per match, the highest figure between these two teams.
Morocco also owns one of the tournament's strongest defenses. The Atlas Lions average 64% possession while allowing just 0.67 expected goals against per game. Their ability to control matches with the ball and remain organized without it has made them one of the most difficult teams to break down. That experience in knockout soccer could prove valuable in another tight contest.
Injuries: No injuries have been reported for Morocco.
Recent Head-to-Head
Morocco defeated Canada 2-1 during the 2022 FIFA World Cup group stage. Morocco has also won the only other meeting, earning a 4-0 friendly victory in 2016.
Canada vs. Morocco Match Pick
- Morocco (-120)
Canada has enjoyed an outstanding tournament, but Morocco enters with more experience in high-pressure knockout matches and has consistently produced against stronger opposition over multiple international tournaments. Morocco's midfield should control possession, while Hakimi and Díaz provide enough creativity to generate quality scoring chances. Canada's attack is capable of creating problems, but Morocco's defense has consistently limited quality opportunities. Expect another disciplined performance from the Atlas Lions as they find a way to advance to the quarterfinals.
Canada vs. Morocco Over/Under Pick
- Under 2.5 Goals (-160)
Both teams have relied on organized defending throughout the tournament, and knockout matches often become increasingly cautious as the stakes rise. Canada has allowed only 0.75 goals per game, while Morocco has conceded just one goal per match and ranks among the tournament leaders in expected goal differential. Possession should be controlled, scoring chances may come at a premium, and neither side is likely to commit unnecessary numbers forward early. A 1-0 or 2-0 Morocco victory is the most likely outcome, making the under the strongest play.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
