England vs. Argentina Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, July 15, 2026
Use Code SSWC England and Argentina meet in the FIFA World Cup semifinals on Wednesday at 3:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. England advanced with a 2-1 quarterfinal win over Norway and has won four straight matches since drawing 0-0 with Ghana. Argentina reached the final four by defeating Switzerland 3-1 after extra time and has won all six tournament matches. England is seeking its first World Cup final appearance since winning the tournament in 1966, while defending champion Argentina is trying to become the first nation to retain the trophy since Brazil in 1962. Build your bankroll with our free World Cup picks.
England Looking to Reach First Final in 60 Years
England has averaged 2.17 goals from 1.82 expected goals per match during the tournament. The Three Lions have scored at least twice in five of their six matches, including consecutive 2-1, 3-2, and 2-1 knockout victories over Congo DR, Mexico, and Norway. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham have carried the attack with six goals each in six appearances. Bukayo Saka and Anthony Gordon have provided three assists apiece, while Marcus Rashford is the only other England player listed with a tournament goal.
Thomas Tuchel’s team has conceded one goal per match despite allowing only 0.81 expected goals on average. England has recorded two clean sheets and holds 57% possession, but the knockout rounds have required repeated recoveries after difficult moments. The defense has allowed one goal in each of the last three matches, while England needed extra toughness to come from behind against Norway. Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson are expected to face a demanding midfield battle, and England will need to prevent Argentina from controlling long periods of possession.
Injuries: No injuries were available, but check the final injury list before placing a bet.
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Argentina Looking to Defend Its World Cup Title
Argentina enters with the stronger attacking numbers, averaging 2.83 goals from 2.13 expected goals per match. Lionel Messi has scored eight goals in six appearances, including a hat trick in the opening 3-0 victory over Algeria. Lautaro MartĂnez has added two goals, while Alexis Mac Allister has scored once. Messi also leads Argentina with two assists, and the attack has received goals from several other players during its perfect tournament run. Argentina has scored three times in each of its last three knockout matches.
Argentina averages 65% possession and has allowed 0.65 expected goals per match, the lower figure in this semifinal. Lionel Scaloni’s side has still conceded six goals overall and owns a 57% save rate, showing that opponents have converted some of the chances they have created. Argentina needed extra time against Cabo Verde and Switzerland, while the Round of 16 against Egypt finished 3-2. Cristian Romero and Lisandro MartĂnez provide an aggressive central defensive partnership, but England’s combination of Kane and Bellingham will offer a major challenge around the penalty area.
Injuries: No injuries were available, but check the final injury list before placing a bet
England vs. Argentina Match Pick
- Argentina (+175)
Argentina is the match pick because its attack has created and finished more chances throughout the tournament. Scaloni’s side averages 2.83 goals and 2.13 expected goals, while Messi has delivered eight goals in six appearances. England has shown impressive resolve and possesses two six-goal scorers, but the Three Lions have conceded in each knockout match and have not controlled games consistently. Argentina’s advantage in possession should allow Messi, Mac Allister, and the surrounding midfielders to dictate more of the match. England can threaten through Kane, Bellingham, Saka, and Gordon, but Argentina has found several ways to score and remains unbeaten. The defending champions are the choice to advance to another World Cup final.
England vs. Argentina Over/Under Pick
- Over 2.5 Goals (+125)
The over 2.5 goals is the play because both attacks have produced regularly while neither defense has been perfect. England has scored at least twice in every match except the draw with Ghana, and its three knockout contests have produced four, five, and three total goals. Argentina averages 2.83 goals, but its last three knockout matches have also featured five, five, and four total goals. Messi, Kane, and Bellingham have combined for 20 tournament goals, giving both teams several reliable finishing options. Argentina has conceded once per match, and England has allowed a goal in three straight rounds. With both sides capable of scoring more than once, this semifinal will cash over 2.5 goals.
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