France vs Iraq Picks and Prediction for Monday, June 22, 2026
Use Code SSWC France and Iraq meet at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on Monday at 5:00 PM ET in a Group I matchup at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. France enters second in the group with three points after a 3-1 victory over Senegal, while Iraq sits fourth after a 4-1 loss to Norway. A French victory would put Didier Deschamps' side on the verge of securing a place in the knockout stage, while Iraq needs a result to keep its advancement hopes alive. France is a massive favorite at -1100 on the moneyline, while Iraq is listed at +2500. Cash in a winner with our free World Cup picks.
France Preview
France opened the tournament with a 3-1 victory over Senegal, but the final score was somewhat misleading. Senegal created several dangerous chances during the first half and could easily have taken the lead before France gradually asserted control after the break.
Kylian Mbappé once again proved to be the difference. The French captain scored twice, including a spectacular long-range strike in stoppage time, while also becoming France's all-time leading scorer with 58 international goals. Bradley Barcola added an important goal off the bench, highlighting the attacking depth available to Didier Deschamps.
The supporting cast was equally impressive. Michael Olise registered an assist and consistently created problems in wide areas, while Adrien Rabiot controlled the midfield during France's strongest stretches. France generated 1.79 expected goals and allowed only 0.53 expected goals against a talented Senegal side, reinforcing why Les Bleus remain among the tournament favorites.
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Defensively, France will be encouraged by its second-half adjustments. After allowing several quality opportunities before halftime, the back line settled down and limited Senegal to very little until a late consolation goal. With Mbappé, Barcola, Olise, and several other attacking options available, France has the ability to overwhelm opponents once matches begin to open up.
Injuries: No major injuries reported entering the match.
Iraq Preview
Iraq suffered a 4-1 defeat against Norway, but the performance was more competitive than the scoreline suggests. Aymen Hussein scored Iraq's lone goal and consistently provided a threat in attack, while Iraq created enough chances to make Norway uncomfortable for portions of the match.
The problem was defensive execution. Iraq briefly equalized at 1-1 before conceding again just four minutes later after a costly goalkeeping error. The match remained within reach for much of the second half, but Norway eventually pulled away with two late goals to secure the result.
There were still positive signs moving forward. Amir Al-Ammari recorded an assist and helped Iraq create several dangerous counterattacking opportunities. Hussein remained effective in aerial situations and nearly added another goal after halftime. Iraq showed a willingness to attack rather than simply sit deep, which should help create chances against France if opportunities arise.
The challenge is obvious. Iraq allowed four goals and finished with a tournament-worst minus-three goal differential after one match. France presents an even more talented attack than Norway, meaning defensive discipline must improve dramatically if Iraq hopes to stay competitive.
Injuries: No major injuries reported entering the match.
France vs Iraq Pick
- France -2.5 (-120)
France possesses significant advantages across the pitch and should control this match from the opening whistle. Iraq struggled to contain Norway's attack and now faces Mbappé and one of the deepest squads in the tournament. France's attacking depth becomes especially important against teams that begin to tire defensively. Deschamps can introduce quality players from the bench without sacrificing production, and that should help France increase a lead as the match progresses. France has already scored three goals in four of its last five matches and is well positioned to win comfortably.
France vs Iraq Over/Under Pick
- Over 3.5 Goals (-105)
Iraq's opener produced five total goals, while France's match against Senegal produced four. Iraq has shown it can contribute offensively through Hussein and the counterattack, but its defensive issues make it difficult to trust against elite opponents. France should create consistent pressure throughout the match and has enough firepower to approach this total on its own. If Iraq contributes even a single goal, the over becomes extremely attractive. A 4-0 or 4-1 France victory is the likely outcome, therefore the play is over.
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