Norway vs. England Picks and Prediction for Saturday, July 11, 2026
Use Code SSWC Norway and England meet in the FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Saturday at 5:00 PM ET on FOX. Norway advanced with a 2-1 comeback win over Brazil behind two late goals from Erling Haaland, while England defeated Mexico 3-2 at Estadio Azteca despite playing most of the second half with 10 men. Norway has won four of its last five matches, while England has reached this stage after surviving two difficult knockout games. A place in the World Cup semifinals is on the line between two teams led by elite center forwards. Cash in a winning ticket with our free World Cup picks.
Norway Looking to Keep Making History
Norway has been one of the tournament’s most dangerous attacking teams, averaging 2.40 goals per match with 1.89 expected goals per game. Haaland is tied with Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé for the tournament lead with seven goals, and his late brace against Brazil gave Norway its first-ever World Cup quarterfinal appearance. Andreas Schjelderup has added three assists, Martin Ødegaard has also recorded three assists, and Antonio Nusa has contributed one goal.
Norway’s biggest concern remains the back line, as the team has allowed 1.80 goals per match and has not recorded a clean sheet. The expected goals against number sits at 1.62 per game, which is high for a quarterfinalist. Ørjan Nyland was outstanding against Brazil, saving a Bruno Guimarães penalty and making another key stop late, but Norway will need better defensive support against England’s attack.
Injuries: No injuries have been reported for Norway.
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England Looking to Build on Mexico Win
England enters after one of the tournament’s most dramatic wins, beating Mexico 3-2 in Mexico City. Jude Bellingham scored twice in 98 seconds, while Harry Kane converted the decisive penalty after England went down to 10 men. Kane now has six goals in five matches, while Bellingham has scored four. Bukayo Saka leads England with three assists, and Anthony Gordon has added two.
England has averaged 2.20 goals per match while creating 1.91 expected goals per game. The Three Lions have also been stronger defensively than Norway, allowing 1.00 goal per match and 0.91 expected goals against. England has kept two clean sheets and owns a +1.0 expected goal differential, giving Thomas Tuchel’s side a more balanced profile entering this quarterfinal.
Injuries: Jarell Quansah is suspended after receiving a red card against Mexico.
Recent Head-to-Head
England has won each of the last two meetings against Norway by 1-0 scores. The most recent matchup came in a 2014 international friendly, while the previous meeting came in Norway in 2012.
Norway vs. England Match Pick
- England -0.5 (-115)
England is the better pick because it has the stronger overall balance and more ways to win. Norway has been carried by Haaland’s incredible finishing, but England has a deeper attacking group with Kane, Bellingham, Saka, and Gordon all capable of changing the game. The Three Lions also have the better defensive numbers, allowing fewer goals and fewer expected goals per match. Norway should create chances, especially if Haaland finds space in the box, but England’s midfield quality and knockout experience give it the edge to reach the semifinals.
Norway vs. England Over/Under Pick
- Over 2.5 Goals (-115)
This matchup sets up well for goals because both teams have elite finishers and recent defensive concerns. Norway has scored at least two goals in four of its five World Cup matches, but it has also allowed at least one goal in every game. England just played a 3-2 match against Mexico and now faces a Norway attack led by Haaland, who has seven tournament goals. Kane and Bellingham should also find chances against a Norway side allowing 1.80 goals per match. With both teams carrying strong attacking form, the over is the better play.
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