Norway vs France Picks and Prediction for Friday, June 26, 2026
Use Code SSWC Norway and France meet at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, on Friday at 3:00 PM ET on FOX in the final Group I match. Both teams enter Matchday 3 with perfect 2-0-0 records and six points, but France sits first with a +5 goal differential, while Norway is second at +4. Both nations have already secured knockout-stage spots, but first place in the group is still on the line. Norway has beaten Iraq 4-1 and Senegal 3-2, while France has defeated Senegal 3-1 and Iraq 3-0. This matchup also features two of the tournament’s top scorers, with Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé both sitting on four goals. Check out our free World Cup picks.
Norway Looking to Win Group I
Norway has been one of the most exciting teams in the tournament, scoring seven goals through two matches. Haaland has led the way with four goals, including back-to-back braces, while Martin Ødegaard has supplied two assists and controlled the tempo in midfield. Norway’s attack has looked direct, physical, and difficult to contain.
The concern is the defense. Norway has conceded three goals in two matches and owns a 40% save percentage. The 3-2 win over Senegal showed how strong the attack was but also exposed some defensive gaps. Against France, Norway cannot afford cheap turnovers or loose marking in transition. Ståle Solbakken’s side should still be aggressive, but better protection around the center backs will be needed.
Norway is averaging 3.50 goals and 2.36 expected goals per match, so the production is backed by quality chances. Haaland, Ødegaard, Alexander Sørloth, and Antonio Nusa give Norway enough attacking variety to trouble France, especially if the game becomes open.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Injuries/Suspensions: Julian Ryerson came off early against Senegal and is a player to monitor. No confirmed suspensions reported.
France Trying to Secure Top Spot
France has looked like a contender through two matches, scoring six goals and allowing only one. Didier Deschamps’ side opened with a 3-1 win over Senegal and followed it with a controlled 3-0 victory over Iraq. France has been sharper defensively than Norway and enters with the best goal differential in the group.
Mbappé has been outstanding with four goals, while Michael Olise has added three assists. Ousmane Dembélé, Bradley Barcola, Adrien Rabiot, and France’s deep attacking group give Deschamps multiple ways to create chances. France is averaging 3.00 goals and 2.23 expected goals per match, with a +1.7 expected goal differential.
The defense has also been strong. France is allowing only 0.58 expected goals per game and has already posted a clean sheet. William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano, Jules Koundé, and Theo Hernandez give France the athleticism to handle Norway’s direct play, but Haaland’s movement will still test the back line.
Injuries/Suspensions: No confirmed injuries or suspensions reported.
Norway vs France Pick
- France ML (-160)
France is the more complete side entering this matchup. Norway has been excellent going forward, but the defensive numbers are a concern against an attack led by Mbappé, Olise, and Dembélé. France has allowed only one goal in two matches and owns the stronger expected goal differential. Norway can absolutely make this competitive behind Haaland and Ødegaard, but France has more balance, better defense, and enough attacking depth to finish first in Group I with another win.
Norway vs France Over/Under Pick
- Over 2.5 Goals (-145)
This matchup will have attack after attack. Norway has scored seven goals in two matches, while France has scored six. Haaland and Mbappé are both in elite form, and neither team has much incentive to sit deep with first place still available. Norway’s defensive issues should give France chances, but Norway’s attacking quality should also create problems. With both sides averaging at least 3.00 goals per match, over 2.5 goals is the play.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
