Panama vs Croatia Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Use Code SSWC Panama and Croatia meet at BMO Field in Toronto, Canada, on Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET in a critical Group L match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Both teams enter with zero points after opening-match defeats and know that another loss would leave their knockout-stage hopes hanging by a thread. Panama suffered a heartbreaking 1-0 defeat to Ghana after conceding in stoppage time, while Croatia fell 4-2 against England despite scoring twice against one of the tournament favorites. Croatia is favored at -185 on the moneyline, while Panama is listed at +550. Cash a winner with our free World Cup picks.
Panama Preview
Panama will feel unfortunate to leave its opener without at least a point. The match against Ghana was largely even for long stretches before Caleb Yirenkyi scored the winner in the 95th minute. Panama defended well throughout the contest and nearly succeeded in frustrating Ghana for the full 90 minutes.
The concern is the attack. Panama failed to score and generated only 0.73 expected goals. The best chance of the first half came through Cecilio Waterman, but Ghana goalkeeper Lawrence Ati-Zigi made an early save to keep the match level. Panama enjoyed 62% possession overall, yet struggled to convert that possession into dangerous scoring opportunities.
Recent form suggests Panama is capable of finding goals. The team scored four times against the Dominican Republic in a June friendly and added two goals against Brazil despite losing that match. However, facing Croatia's experienced midfield will be a different challenge. Panama must be more decisive in the final third if it hopes to stay alive in Group L.
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Defensively, there were positives despite the loss. Panama remained organized for most of the match and limited Ghana to few clear opportunities before the late breakthrough.
Injuries: No major injuries reported entering the match.
Croatia Preview
Croatia's 4-2 loss to England looks disappointing on paper, but the performance was better than the final score indicates. Martin Baturina and Petar Musa both found the net, and Croatia twice showed the ability to respond against one of the strongest squads in the tournament.
The biggest issue was containing England's attack. Croatia allowed 3.20 expected goals and faced 11 shots on target. Goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic made seven saves to prevent the margin from becoming even larger. England consistently created dangerous chances through Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Bukayo Saka, exposing weaknesses in Croatia's defense.
There were still encouraging signs offensively. Baturina's long-range strike showcased Croatia's technical quality, while Musa's goal just before halftime briefly pulled the match level. Veterans such as Ivan Perisic, Mateo Kovacic, and Andrej Kramaric still provide experience, and Croatia should find more opportunities against a Panama side that lacks England's talent level.
Croatia generated only 0.70 expected goals against England, but context matters. Much of the match was spent defending against sustained pressure. This matchup should allow Croatia more possession and greater control in midfield.
Injuries: No major injuries reported entering the match.
Panama vs Croatia Pick
- Croatia Moneyline (-185)
Croatia's opener came against the toughest opponent in the group, while Panama failed to capitalize on an opportunity against Ghana. Despite the loss, Croatia showed enough attacking quality to suggest it can rebound here. The midfield advantage should be significant, and Croatia's experience in high-pressure international matches gives it the edge. Expect Croatia to control possession and create the better scoring opportunities throughout the match.
Panama vs Croatia Over/Under Pick
- Over 2.5 Goals (-105)
Panama must chase points after opening with a loss, which should create a more open match than its game against Ghana. Croatia conceded four goals to England but also showed it can contribute offensively. With both teams facing enormous pressure to earn a result, the game state could become increasingly aggressive as it progresses. A scoreline such as 2-1 or 3-1 fits the matchup, making over 2.5 goals a strong play here.
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