Paraguay vs Australia Picks and Prediction for Thursday, June 25, 2026
Use Code SSWC Paraguay and Australia meet in a crucial Group D finale at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara on Thursday at 10:00 PM ET on FS1. Both nations enter Matchday 3 with three points after splitting their first two group matches, while the United States has already secured first place with six points. Australia currently occupies second place on goal difference, while Paraguay sits third. The winner of this match will likely secure automatic qualification to the knockout stage, while a draw leaves Paraguay dependent on results elsewhere. Australia fell 2-0 to the United States on Matchday 2, while Paraguay earned a gritty 1-0 victory over Turkey despite playing the second half with 10 men. Win with our free World Cup picks.
Paraguay Coming Off Gritty Victory Over Turkey
Paraguay kept its World Cup hopes alive with one of the tournament's toughest performances on Matchday 2. La Albirroja defeated Türkiye 1-0 after Matías Galarza scored in the second minute, then survived the entire second half with 10 players following Miguel Almirón's red card just before halftime. The result erased much of the disappointment from a 4-1 loss to the United States in the group opener and put Paraguay back in position to reach the Round of 32.
The challenge for Gustavo Alfaro is replacing Almirón, who will miss this match through suspension. Julio Enciso becomes even more important as the creative focal point after already recording two assists in the tournament. Paraguay has scored only two goals through two matches and owns just 28% possession on average, but the team continues to compete through strong defense and discipline at both ends. Galarza's emergence has been important, while veterans Gustavo Gómez and Omar Alderete have helped stabilize the back line. Paraguay's expected goals number of 0.43 per game highlights the team's attacking limitations, making efficiency in front of goal critical.
Injuries/Suspensions: Miguel Almirón (Suspended). No reported injuries.
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Australia Looking to Secure Knockout Qualification
Australia remains in a favorable position despite the loss to the United States. The Socceroos opened the tournament with a 2-0 victory over Turkey before falling 2-0 against the Americans. With a neutral goal difference and three points, a draw may still be enough to advance, but Tony Popovic's side will likely approach this match looking for all three points rather than relying on other results.
Australia has shown more balance than Paraguay throughout the tournament. The Socceroos have scored two goals and conceded two while posting stronger defensive metrics, including an 82% save percentage and one clean sheet. Midfielder Cameron Metcalfe and winger Nestory Irankunda have each scored once, while Paul Okon-Engstler has contributed an assist and remains one of the team's key midfield pieces. Defensively, Harry Souttar anchors a back line that has generally performed well outside of stretches against the United States. Australia's ability to defend transitions could become the deciding factor against a Paraguay side that prefers to attack quickly after winning possession.
Injuries/Suspensions: No reported injuries or suspensions.
Paraguay vs Australia Pick
- Australia ML (+300)
Australia enters with the more complete squad and fewer lineup concerns. The suspension of Almirón removes Paraguay's most experienced attacking creator and places additional pressure on Enciso to carry the offense. The Socceroos have been stronger defensively throughout the group stage and should benefit from facing a Paraguay side that averages only 0.43 expected goals per match. With qualification on the line, Australia's defensive structure and midfield depth provide a slight edge in what should be a tightly contested match.
Paraguay vs Australia Over/Under Pick
- Under 2.5 Goals (-120)
Everything points toward a low-scoring contest. Paraguay has scored only twice in two matches and generally plays a cautious style built around defensive discipline. Australia has also been involved in lower-scoring matches, with only one of its last five games producing more than two total goals. The stakes are enormous, and neither team can afford an early mistake that could jeopardize qualification. Expect a physical midfield battle, limited chances, and long stretches where both sides prioritize defense over attacking.
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