Paraguay vs. France Picks and Prediction for Saturday, July 4, 2026
Use Code SSWC Paraguay and France meet in the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on Saturday at 5:00 PM ET on FOX. Paraguay produced the biggest surprise of the tournament by eliminating Germany on penalties after a 1-1 draw in the Round of 32, while France advanced with a dominant 3-0 victory over Sweden. Paraguay has lost only once in its last five matches, while France has won five straight and enters the knockout stage as one of the tournament favorites. Check out today’s free World Cup picks.
Paraguay Riding the Momentum
Paraguay has already exceeded expectations after surviving one of the toughest paths to the Round of 16. The South Americans frustrated Germany for 120 minutes before winning the penalty shootout 4-3, following a disciplined defensive display that highlighted the team's toughness. Earlier in the tournament, Paraguay defeated Turkey 1-0, drew Australia 0-0, and suffered its only group-stage defeat in a 4-1 loss to the United States.
Julio Enciso remains Paraguay's biggest attacking threat, contributing one goal and two assists during the tournament. Matías Galarza and Maurício have also found the net, but goals have been difficult to generate overall. Paraguay averages just 0.75 goals per match while producing only 0.32 expected goals per game, the lowest attacking figure among the remaining Round of 16 teams.
Despite the limited offense, Paraguay continues to defend at a very high level. The team has recorded two clean sheets, allows only 1.25 goals per match, and forces opponents to break down a compact defensive shape. Germany dominated possession and territory throughout the Round of 32, yet Paraguay remained composed and capitalized when the match reached penalties. A similar approach should be expected again against France.
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Injuries: No injuries have been reported for Paraguay.
France Showing Championship Form
France has looked like the complete package throughout this World Cup. Didier Deschamps' squad won all three group matches before comfortably dispatching Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32. Les Bleus have now scored 13 goals in four tournament matches while conceding only two.
Kylian Mbappé has been sensational with six tournament goals and two assists, while Ousmane Dembélé has added four goals and two assists. Michael Olise leads the tournament with five assists, and Bradley Barcola has chipped in with two goals. France averages 3.25 goals per match while creating 2.03 expected goals, giving opponents very little room to recover once Les Bleus take control.
France also remains balanced defensively. The back line has posted two clean sheets while allowing only 0.50 goals per match, and the midfield continues to dominate possession at 57%. The depth of attacking options allows France to pressure opponents for the full 90 minutes, making it extremely difficult for defensive-minded teams to hold out for long stretches.
Injuries: No injuries have been reported for France.
Recent Head-to-Head
France has won four of the last five meetings between the nations. The most recent matchup came in a 2017 friendly, where France earned a 5-0 victory. France also eliminated Paraguay 1-0 in the 1998 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 on home soil.
Paraguay vs. France Match Pick
- France -1.5 (-170)
Paraguay deserves tremendous credit for eliminating Germany, but repeating that performance against another elite attack will be an even greater challenge. France has consistently created high-quality scoring chances throughout the tournament, and Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise give Les Bleus far more attacking variety than Germany displayed. Paraguay should remain organized early, but France has enough creativity and finishing ability to gradually pull away. Expect Les Bleus to control possession, generate sustained pressure, and secure a comfortable victory that sends them into the quarterfinals.
Paraguay vs. France Over/Under Pick
- Over 2.5 Goals (-170)
Paraguay will likely defend deep again, but France has already shown it can break down compact defensive blocks with patience and movement. Les Bleus have scored at least three goals in each of their last four World Cup victories, while Paraguay's limited attacking production leaves little margin for error if France scores first. Once the match opens up, additional opportunities should follow. A 3-0 or 3-1 France victory fits both teams' tournament form and makes the over a strong play.
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