Portugal vs. Croatia Picks and Prediction for Thursday, July 2, 2026
Use Code SSWC Portugal and Croatia meet in the FIFA World Cup Round of 32 at BMO Field in Toronto, Canada, on Thursday at 7:00 PM ET on FOX. Portugal finished second in Group K with five points after defeating Uzbekistan and drawing both DR Congo and Colombia. Croatia advanced from Group D with six points after victories over Panama and Ghana following an opening loss to England. Portugal enters the knockout stage unbeaten in its last five matches, while Croatia has won three of its last five contests. Build your bankroll with our free World Cup picks.
Portugal Seeking Another Deep Tournament Run
Portugal produced a steady group-stage campaign despite drawing two of its three World Cup matches. Roberto Martínez's squad opened with a 1-1 draw against DR Congo before overwhelming Uzbekistan 5-0 and finishing with a scoreless draw against Colombia to secure a place in the knockout rounds. Portugal averaged 2.00 goals per match while allowing only one goal throughout the group stage.
Cristiano Ronaldo leads Portugal with two goals in three appearances, while Nuno Mendes and João Neves have also scored. Bruno Fernandes, Pedro Neto, and João Cancelo have each contributed an assist, giving Portugal consistent production throughout the lineup. Portugal averaged 1.28 expected goals while controlling possession 58% of the time, relying on patient buildup and defensive organization to manage matches.
Portugal also enters this contest in strong overall form with three wins and two draws across its last five matches, including friendly victories over Nigeria and Chile before the tournament. Defensively, Portugal has been excellent, recording two clean sheets during group play while allowing only 0.33 goals per match. That defensive consistency gives Martínez's side confidence entering another difficult knockout matchup.
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Injuries: No injuries have been reported for Portugal.
Croatia Looking to Build on Group-Stage Recovery
Croatia recovered well after suffering a 4-2 defeat to England in its tournament opener. Zlatko Dalić's squad responded with a 1-0 victory over Panama before defeating Ghana 2-1 to secure second place in the group. Croatia averaged 1.67 goals per match during group play, but defensive consistency remains the primary concern after conceding five goals across three matches.
Martin Baturina, Petar Sučić, and Petar Musa have each scored once during the tournament, while Luka Modrić, Ivan Perišić, and Josip Stanišić have each recorded an assist. Croatia continues to rely on its experienced midfield to control the pace of matches, but the back line has occasionally struggled against quick attacking teams.
Croatia has won three of its last five matches overall, including a friendly victory over Slovenia before the World Cup. The experience of Modrić, Perišić, and Joško Gvardiol gives Croatia plenty of leadership entering the knockout rounds, but slowing Portugal's balanced attack will be the biggest challenge.
Injuries: No injuries have been reported for Croatia.
Recent Head-to-Head
Portugal has enjoyed the better results in recent meetings between these nations. Portugal defeated Croatia 2-1 in the UEFA Nations League in September 2024 after Croatia earned a 2-1 friendly victory earlier that year. Portugal also won both Nations League meetings in 2020 and eliminated Croatia 1-0 in the Round of 16 at UEFA Euro 2016.
Portugal vs. Croatia Match Pick
- Portugal Moneyline (-125)
Portugal enters this match with the stronger defensive record and greater attacking depth. Ronaldo continues to provide a clinical finishing presence, while Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva consistently create opportunities through midfield. Croatia has enough quality to remain competitive, especially with Modrić orchestrating the attack, but Portugal's younger legs and stronger defense should become the difference over 90 minutes. Expect Portugal to control possession, limit Croatia's scoring opportunities, and advance to the Round of 16.
Portugal vs. Croatia Over/Under Pick
- Under 2.5 Goals (-132)
Knockout matches between experienced European sides often develop into patient, tactical battles, and this matchup fits that profile. Portugal has conceded only one goal through three World Cup matches and closed group play with a 0-0 draw against Colombia. Croatia has relied on defense since its opening loss to England and will likely avoid taking unnecessary risks early. With both teams comfortable playing a structured match, another low-scoring contest will cash under.
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