Portugal vs. Spain Picks and Prediction for Monday, July 6, 2026
Use Code SSWC Portugal and Spain meet in the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on Monday at 3:00 PM ET on FOX. Portugal advanced with a 2-1 victory over Croatia in the Round of 32, while Spain moved on with a 3-0 win over Austria. Portugal has two wins and two draws through four World Cup matches, while Spain has won all four matches without conceding a goal. Check out today’s free World Cup picks.
Portugal Looking for Another Knockout Win
Portugal averages 2.00 goals per match while creating 1.37 expected goals per game. Cristiano Ronaldo leads the squad with three goals in four appearances, while Nuno Mendes and João Neves have each scored once. Bruno Fernandes, Pedro Neto, and João Cancelo have each recorded one assist. Portugal opened group play with a 1-1 draw against DR Congo, defeated Uzbekistan 5-0, drew Colombia 0-0, and then rallied past Croatia in the Round of 32.
The attack has produced eight goals across four tournament matches, but chance creation has been uneven. Portugal scored five times against Uzbekistan, yet the draws against Colombia and DR Congo showed how difficult it can be for this group to break down disciplined opponents. Against Croatia, Portugal needed a second-half response and a late winner to advance. Ronaldo remains the focal point, but Portugal will need more from the supporting attackers against a Spain side that has controlled matches with possession.
Portugal has allowed only 0.50 goals per match and has recorded two clean sheets. The squad owns an 88% save percentage while allowing 1.26 expected goals against per game, which suggests opponents have still created chances. Portugal has held 56% possession and owns a +1.5 goal differential, but the expected goal differential is only +0.1. That gap matters against Spain, which has been much sharper at limiting quality looks.
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Injuries: No injuries have been reported for Portugal.
Spain Showing Control at Both Ends
Spain has matched Portugal with 2.00 goals per match while posting better underlying numbers. La Roja has created 1.63 expected goals per game and has allowed only 0.21 expected goals against per match. Mikel Oyarzabal leads Spain with four goals in four appearances, while Lamine Yamal and Álex Baena have also scored. Marc Cucurella has two assists, while Aymeric Laporte and Oyarzabal have each added one assist.
Spain has won all four matches at this World Cup and has yet to concede. The 3-0 Round of 32 victory over Austria was Spain’s most complete attacking performance of the tournament, and Oyarzabal’s finishing has given the team a reliable option in the final third. Spain’s 68% possession rate is one of the strongest marks in the knockout field, and that control should allow La Roja to dictate long stretches of this matchup.
Spain’s back line has been outstanding, recording four clean sheets with a 100% save percentage. The team has allowed 0.00 goals per match and owns a +2.0 average goal differential. Spain’s ability to keep opponents away from clear chances has been the biggest difference between these teams. Portugal has enough individual quality to threaten, but Spain has been the steadier and cleaner side through four matches.
Injuries: No injuries have been reported for Spain.
Recent Head-to-Head
Portugal and Spain played to a 2-2 draw in the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League Final before Portugal won on penalties. Spain won 1-0 in the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League group stage, while the teams drew 1-1 earlier in that same competition. The previous two friendlies ended 0-0, showing how tight this matchup has been in recent years.
Portugal vs. Spain Match Pick
- Spain -0.5 (-115)
Spain is the better pick because it has been the better club throughout this tournament. La Roja has won all four World Cup matches, has not allowed a goal, and owns a major edge in expected goals against. Portugal has strong names in attack, but the underlying numbers show some warning signs, especially after draws against Colombia and DR Congo. Spain’s possession edge should limit Portugal’s transition chances, while Oyarzabal and Yamal give the attack enough quality to find a breakthrough. Portugal can keep this close, but Spain’s current form and defensive record make La Roja the play to advance in regulation.
Portugal vs. Spain Over/Under Pick
- Under 2.5 Goals (-110)
The under is the best total play because both teams have shown they can play tight knockout matches. Spain has not conceded through four World Cup games and is allowing only 0.21 expected goals against per match. Portugal has allowed only 0.50 goals per game and has kept two clean sheets, even if the expected goals against number is higher than Spain’s. Recent meetings between these rivals have also been low scoring, with three of the last five ending level after 90 minutes and two finishing 0-0. Expect Spain to control possession, Portugal to stay compact, and scoring chances to be limited enough for the under to cash.
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