Senegal vs Iraq Picks and Prediction for Friday, June 26, 2026
Use Code SSWC Senegal and Iraq meet at BMO Field in Toronto, Ontario, on Friday at 3:00 PM ET on FS1 in the final Group I match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Both teams enter Matchday 3 with 0-2-0 records and zero points after losses to France and Norway. While qualification hopes are hanging by a thread, both nations still have motivation to finish third and potentially improve their standing among third-place teams. Senegal has been more competitive despite the losses, while Iraq enters after conceding seven goals through two matches. Cash a winning ticket with our free World Cup picks.
Senegal Looking to End Group Play on a High Note
Senegal's record does not fully reflect how competitive the Lions of Teranga have been. Pape Thiaw's side lost 3-1 to France before pushing Norway to the limit in a 3-2 defeat. Ismaïla Sarr has been the standout performer with two goals in the tournament, while Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson, and Iliman Ndiaye continue to provide attacking quality.
The biggest issue has been the defense. Senegal has conceded six goals in two matches and owns a negative expected goal differential of -0.9. Against Norway, defensive lapses proved costly, especially when Erling Haaland found space in transition. Senegal's midfield trio of Idrissa Gueye, Lamine Camara, and Pape Gueye will need to do a better job protecting the back line against Iraq's counterattacks.
Despite the defensive concerns, Senegal still averages 1.50 goals per match and has scored in both World Cup games. The attack remains dangerous enough to create problems for an Iraqi defense that has struggled throughout the tournament. If Senegal can tighten up defensively, this is a favorable matchup to finish the group stage with a victory.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Injuries/Suspensions: No reported injuries or suspensions.
Iraq Searching for a Positive Ending
Iraq's return to the World Cup has been difficult. Graham Arnold's side opened with a 4-1 defeat to Norway before suffering a 3-0 loss to France. The Lions of Mesopotamia have scored just one goal through two matches while allowing seven, leaving them at the bottom of Group I with a -6 goal differential.
Aymen Hussein remains Iraq's primary attacking threat after scoring against Norway, while Amir Al-Ammari has contributed an assist and remains the key distributor in midfield. Iraq has struggled to generate sustained pressure, averaging only 0.50 goals and 0.71 expected goals per match. Possession numbers have also been an issue, with Iraq controlling only 42% of the ball through two games.
Defensively, Iraq has allowed 3.5 goals per match and owns a tournament-low 36% save percentage. The back line has been forced into extended defensive stretches against stronger opposition, and that trend could continue against Senegal's athletic front three. Iraq will likely sit compact and look to counter, but the margin for error remains small.
Injuries/Suspensions: No reported injuries or suspensions.
Senegal vs Iraq Pick
- Senegal -1.5 (-150)
Senegal has shown far more attacking quality than Iraq. The Lions of Teranga scored twice against Norway and created chances against France, while Iraq has struggled to generate offense outside of brief moments. Sarr, Mané, and Jackson give Senegal a significant edge in the final third, and Iraq's defensive issues make it difficult to trust them against a team with this much pace and creativity. Senegal should control the match and create enough opportunities to win by multiple goals.
Senegal vs Iraq Over/Under Pick
- Over 3.5 Goals (+140)
This number is high, but both defenses have been vulnerable throughout the tournament. Senegal matches have produced nine total goals through two games, while Iraq matches have produced eight. Senegal has scored in both group matches and should generate consistent chances against a defense allowing 3.5 goals per game. Iraq has enough attacking talent through Hussein and Al-Ammari to contribute at least one goal, making the over worth consideration, even at plus money.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
