Spain vs. Argentina Picks and Prediction for Sunday, July 19, 2026
Use Code SSWC Spain and Argentina meet in the FIFA World Cup final on Sunday at 3:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Spain reached the final with a 2-0 semifinal win over France and has won five straight matches since opening the tournament with a draw. Argentina advanced after a 2-1 comeback victory over England and has won all seven of its matches. Spain is trying to add the World Cup to its European title, while Argentina is seeking a second straight World Cup championship. Cash a winning ticket with our free World Cup picks.
Spain Looking to Complete Another Championship Run
Spain has averaged 1.86 goals per match while producing 1.84 expected goals through seven tournament matches. Mikel Oyarzabal leads La Roja with five goals, while Mikel Merino and Pedro Porro have scored twice each. Dani Olmo and Marc Cucurella each have two assists, and Aymeric Laporte has added one. Spain has scored eight goals across its last five matches, beating Uruguay 1-0, Austria 3-0, Portugal 1-0, Belgium 2-1, and France 2-0. That run shows Spain can win through patient possession, quick attacks, or set-piece pressure.
Spain’s defense has been the best in the tournament. La Roja has allowed only 0.14 goals and 0.32 expected goals per match, with six clean sheets in seven outings. Spain also owns a 91% save rate and 63% possession. The semifinal win over France was another strong example, as Spain kept one of the tournament’s most dangerous attacks off the scoresheet. Rodri, Fabian Ruiz, Laporte, Pau Cubarsi, Cucurella, and Porro have helped Spain limit space in central areas and reduce clear scoring chances.
Injuries: No injuries reported by Spain.
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Argentina Looking to Win a Second Straight World Cup
Argentina has been the more productive attacking team, averaging 2.71 goals from 2.00 expected goals per match. Lionel Messi leads the tournament charge with eight goals and four assists in seven appearances. Lautaro Martinez has added three goals, while Enzo Fernandez has scored twice. Alexis Mac Allister and Martinez have each recorded one assist. Argentina has needed late goals during the knockout rounds, but the attack has continued to find answers under pressure. The 2-1 comeback against England showed how quickly Argentina can change a match once Messi finds room between midfield and the penalty area.
Argentina has allowed one goal and 0.59 expected goals per match while posting two clean sheets. The defending champions also average 63% possession, matching Spain’s tournament figure, but the 56% save rate is much lower than Spain’s 91% mark. Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martinez have defended aggressively, while Rodrigo De Paul, Mac Allister, Fernandez, and Leandro Paredes have supported the press and helped recover possession. Argentina has conceded in several knockout matches, so the back line will need to remain organized against Oyarzabal, Olmo, Lamine Yamal, and Spain’s attacking full-backs.
Injuries: No injuries reported by Spain.
Spain vs. Argentina Match Pick
- Spain (+130)
Spain is the match pick because its defense has been far more reliable across seven matches. La Roja has conceded only once, recorded six clean sheets, and allowed just 0.32 expected goals per match. Argentina owns the stronger scoring average and has Messi in outstanding form, but Spain has already shut down France and has allowed very little space around its penalty area throughout the tournament. Spain’s midfield can also match Argentina’s possession and passing quality. With Rodri protecting the defense and Oyarzabal finishing consistently, Spain will lift the Cup.
Spain vs. Argentina Over/Under Pick
- Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 goals is the best bet because Spain has allowed only one goal all tournament, and Argentina has enough experience to avoid an open match early. Both teams average 63% possession, which could create long stretches of careful passing and limited risk. Spain’s last five matches have produced totals of one, three, one, three, and two goals, while the final itself should encourage a cautious approach. Messi and Oyarzabal can still decide the match with one moment, but the defensive numbers point toward a tight contest with few clear chances.
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