Sweden vs Tunisia Picks and Prediction for Sunday, June 14, 2026
Use Code SSWC Sweden and Tunisia meet at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe, Mexico, on Sunday at 10:00 PM ET in a Group F match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Sweden is coming off a dramatic qualification run and carries a DLWWD record across its last five matches. Tunisia is making its seventh World Cup appearance and arrives with an LLDWL record despite dominating African qualifying. With the Netherlands and Japan also competing in Group F, both nations know points will be difficult to find later in the group stage. Check out our free World Cup picks.
Sweden Preview
Sweden is back at the World Cup after one of the more unlikely qualification campaigns in Europe. The Swedes collected only one point through their first four qualifying matches before a coaching change transformed the team. Graham Potter took over in October 2025 and quickly restored confidence, guiding Sweden through the playoffs with victories over Ukraine and Poland. Viktor Gyökeres scored four goals in those two matches, including a late winner against Poland that secured Sweden's place in the tournament.
Potter has returned Sweden to a style built around defensive discipline and effective counterattacks. During the playoffs, he favored a 5-3-2 formation that emphasized defensive stability while allowing attacking players room to operate in transition. The approach fits a squad that may not dominate possession but remains dangerous when opportunities develop.
Gyökeres is unquestionably the player to watch after finishing the club season in strong form and carrying that momentum into international play. Alexander Isak remains a major threat despite concerns about his recent form, while midfielder Jesper Karlström provides leadership and balance in the center of the pitch. Sweden believes it can challenge for a knockout-stage berth, but opening with three points would significantly improve those chances.
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Injuries: Captain Dejan Kulusevski is out of the tournament. Alexander Isak has also dealt with fitness concerns entering the World Cup.
Tunisia Preview
Tunisia qualified for the World Cup in impressive fashion, completing its entire African qualifying campaign without conceding a goal. Defensive consistency has become the foundation of the team, although several coaching changes occurred throughout qualification before Sabri Lamouchi took charge earlier this year. The Eagles of Carthage are still searching for their first trip beyond the group stage in World Cup history.
Lamouchi immediately began reshaping the squad around younger players while experimenting tactically. Tunisia used both a 4-3-3 and a 4-2-3-1 formation during recent friendlies, giving the coaching staff flexibility depending on the opponent. Regardless of formation, defensive discipline remains the team's greatest strength and has helped Tunisia become one of the most difficult teams in Africa to break down.
Midfielder Hannibal Mejbri has emerged as the face of the national team and now wears the No. 10 shirt previously associated with Wahbi Khazri. Ismaël Gharbi provides creativity in attacking areas, while left-back Ali Abdi remains one of the most dependable players in the squad. Tunisia may not have the star power of some nations in this tournament, but its defensive structure gives it a chance to stay competitive in every match.
Injuries: No major injuries reported entering the tournament.
Sweden vs Tunisia Pick
- Sweden -110
Sweden has the advantage because of its attacking talent and the momentum created during the playoff run. Gyökeres is playing some of the best football of his career and gives Sweden a proven scorer capable of making the difference in a tight match. Potter has also quickly established a clear identity that fits the strengths of this squad. Tunisia deserves respect after conceding zero goals during qualification, but the level of opposition Sweden faced in Europe was considerably stronger. Sweden's combination of defensive discipline and attacking quality should create enough opportunities to secure three important points in the group opener.
Sweden vs Tunisia Over/Under Pick
- Under 2.5
This match will cash under 2.5 goals. Tunisia's defensive record speaks for itself after allowing no goals throughout qualification, while Sweden has become more conservative under Potter and is comfortable playing in low-scoring matches. Opening World Cup matches often feature a cautious approach, particularly when both teams understand the importance of avoiding defeat. Sweden has enough quality to find a breakthrough, but Tunisia's defensive structure should keep scoring opportunities limited. A tightly contested match that stays below the total is the most likely outcome.
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