Tunisia vs Netherlands Picks and Prediction for Thursday, June 25, 2026
Use Code SSWC Tunisia and the Netherlands meet in the final Group F match at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Thursday at 7:00 PM ET on FS1. Tunisia enters Matchday 3 with an 0-2 record and has already been eliminated after losses to Sweden and Japan. The Netherlands sits at 1-1-0 with four points and remains in a strong position to advance to the knockout stage. Japan also has four points, while Sweden sits on three, making every goal potentially important in the battle for first place. The Dutch are coming off an impressive 5-1 victory over Sweden, while Tunisia has conceded nine goals through its first two matches. Check out our free World Cup picks.
Tunisia Playing for Pride After Difficult Tournament
Tunisia's World Cup campaign has been one to forget. The Eagles of Carthage opened the tournament with a 5-1 loss to Sweden before suffering a 4-0 defeat against Japan on Matchday 2. Those results eliminated Tunisia from knockout-round contention and led to a managerial change, with Hervé Renard taking over after Sabri Lamouchi's dismissal.
Tunisia has scored just one goal while allowing nine, producing an average expected goals figure of only 0.05 per match. Omar Rekik scored the team's lone goal of the tournament, while Hannibal Mejbri provided the only assist. Veteran midfielder Ellyes Skhiri remains the leader in the middle of the pitch, but Tunisia has struggled to create meaningful scoring opportunities against quality opposition. The defense that has traditionally defined the national team has also disappeared, with opponents consistently finding space in dangerous areas. Tunisia enters this match having lost four consecutive games across all competitions while being outscored 15-1 during that stretch.
Injuries: No reported injuries or suspensions.
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Netherlands Arriving With Momentum After Five-Goal Outburst
The Netherlands has steadily improved through the tournament and now controls its own path to the knockout stage. Ronald Koeman's side opened with a 2-2 draw against Japan before delivering one of the strongest performances of Matchday 2 in a 5-1 victory over Sweden. That result moved the Dutch level with Japan on four points entering the decisive final group fixture.
The Netherlands is averaging 3.5 goals per match while generating 1.70 expected goals per game. Cody Gakpo, Crysencio Summerville, and Brian Brobbey have each scored two goals in the tournament, giving the Dutch multiple dangerous options in the final third. Denzel Dumfries has already recorded two assists from his right-back position, while Ryan Gravenberch has also contributed two assists. Defensively, Virgil van Dijk continues to anchor a talented back line that has largely controlled matches despite conceding twice against Japan. The Netherlands has dominated possession throughout the tournament and should once again dictate the tempo against an overmatched Tunisia side.
Injuries: No reported injuries or suspensions.
Tunisia vs Netherlands Pick
- Netherlands -2.5 (-125)
The Netherlands has every advantage entering this matchup. The Dutch need a victory to maximize their chances of winning Group F and have looked increasingly dangerous going forward. Tunisia has already been eliminated and enters after conceding nine goals in two matches. The difference in attacking quality is substantial, and the Dutch have shown they can overwhelm struggling defenses. With Gakpo, Brobbey, Summerville, and Dumfries all in excellent form, the Netherlands should create enough chances to win comfortably and potentially improve its goal differential in the process.
Tunisia vs Netherlands Over/Under Pick
- Over 3.5 Goals (-120)
Tunisia's defensive issues have been impossible to ignore. The Eagles of Carthage have allowed nine goals in two World Cup matches and have conceded 15 goals across their last four games in all competitions. Meanwhile, the Netherlands just scored five goals against Sweden and has found the net seven times through two tournament matches. Tunisia may play with a little more freedom now that elimination is official, which could create a more open match. With the Dutch motivated to secure first place and Tunisia struggling defensively, this matchup has a strong chance to clear the total.
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