Turkey vs United States Picks and Prediction for Thursday, June 25, 2026
Use Code SSWC Turkey and the United States meet in the final Group D match at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, on Thursday at 10:00 PM ET on FOX. The United States enters Matchday 3 with a perfect 2-0-0 record, six points, and a +5 goal differential after wins over Paraguay and Australia. Turkey is 0-0-2 with zero points and has already been eliminated after losses to Australia and Paraguay. The United States has already secured first place in Group D, but Mauricio Pochettino’s side will want to maintain momentum before the knockout stage. Turkey is playing for pride after a disappointing tournament in which the attack has failed to score. Cash a winner with our free World Cup picks.
Turkey Trying to Finish With a Positive Result
Turkey entered the tournament with plenty of attacking talent but has failed to turn possession into production. Vincenzo Montella’s side lost 2-0 to Australia in the opener before falling 1-0 to Paraguay on Matchday 2. Despite averaging 75% possession through two matches, Turkey has not scored a goal and now exits the tournament after this final fixture.
The underlying numbers suggest Turkey has created more than the scoreboard shows. The team averages 1.36 expected goals per match and has a positive expected goal differential, but Arda Güler, Kenan Yildiz, Hakan Calhanoglu, and Kerem Akturkoglu have not found the finishing touch. Turkey’s midfield can still control long stretches, but the final pass and shot selection have been lacking.
Defensively, Turkey has been competitive enough, allowing only three goals across two matches. The problem is that one mistake has been costly because the attack has provided no support. Against a United States team that may rotate, Turkey should have chances to compete, but the confidence level is low after back-to-back scoreless defeats.
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Injuries/Suspensions: No reported injuries or suspensions.
United States Building Momentum Before Knockout Stage
The United States has been one of the best teams in the group stage. Pochettino’s squad opened with a 4-1 win over Paraguay and followed it with a controlled 2-0 victory over Australia. With six points and first place already secured, the Americans can manage minutes while still chasing another strong performance in front of a home crowd.
Folarin Balogun has led the attack with two goals, while Gio Reyna and Alex Freeman have also scored. Malik Tillman, Christian Pulisic, and Freeman have each contributed assists, giving the United States several routes into the final third. The Americans are averaging 3.0 goals per match while holding 64% possession, showing balance between control and direct attacking play.
The defensive numbers are just as strong. The United States has conceded only one goal, allowed just 0.44 expected goals per match, and posted one clean sheet through two games. Tim Ream, Chris Richards, and Antonee Robinson have helped provide stability, while Matt Freese has been protected well. Even if reserves see action, the squad depth should keep the United States in command.
Injuries/Suspensions: Christian Pulisic is a player to monitor after an earlier knock, but he is expected to be available.
Turkey vs United States Pick
- United States ML (-105)
The United States has been the better team throughout Group D and still has enough motivation to finish unbeaten. Turkey has controlled possession but has not scored in two matches, and that lack of finishing is difficult to overlook against a defense allowing only 0.44 expected goals per game. Even with possible rotation, the United States has more confidence, more attacking production, and the home-field edge in Los Angeles. Balogun, Reyna, Tillman, and Pepi give Pochettino enough options to punish a Turkey side that has struggled to convert possession into clear chances.
Turkey vs United States Over/Under Pick
- Under 2.5 Goals (+110)
Turkey’s tournament has been defined by possession without goals, while the United States has defended at a high level through two matches. The Americans do not need to chase the game, and with first place already secured, a controlled approach makes sense. Turkey has enough technical quality to slow the pace and keep the ball, but the attack has not shown enough sharpness to be trusted. This matchup should feature long possession spells, limited transition chances, and a United States side focused on staying healthy and organized before the knockout rounds.
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