United States vs. Belgium Picks and Prediction for Monday, July 6, 2026
Use Code SSWC The United States faces Belgium in the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington, on Monday at 8:00 PM ET on FOX. The United States advanced with a 2-0 win over Bosnia-Herzegovina, while Belgium rallied past Senegal with two late regulation goals before winning in extra time. The Americans are 3-1 across their last four World Cup matches, while Belgium has been inconsistent despite reaching this stage. A quarterfinal spot is on the line in a matchup priced closely by the market. Search through all our free World Cup picks
United States Looking to Reach Quarterfinals without Balogun
The United States has been productive in attack, averaging 2.50 goals per match while generating 1.63 expected goals per game. Folarin Balogun leads the Americans with three goals, though his red card against Bosnia-Herzegovina makes his absence a major loss for this matchup. Alex Freeman, Malik Tillman, and Sebastian Berhalter have each contributed in the scoring or assist columns, helping the U.S. create enough chances to beat Paraguay 4-1, Australia 2-0, and Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0.
The Americans have allowed 1.00 goals per match while recording two clean sheets. The 1.69 expected goals conceded number is a concern against Belgium’s midfield quality, but the United States has still managed matches well when protecting leads. With 56% possession and a 64% save percentage, the U.S. will need another composed performance against a Belgium side with several experienced attackers.
Injuries: Folarin Balogun is suspended after receiving a red card against Bosnia and Herzegovina.
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Belgium Bringing Experience and Late-Game Threat
Belgium averages 2.25 goals per match while producing 2.64 expected goals, giving the Red Devils one of the stronger chance-creation profiles in this matchup. Youri Tielemans, Leandro Trossard, and Romelu Lukaku have each scored twice, while Trossard, Hans Vanaken, and Lukaku have also recorded assists. Belgium struggled for long stretches against Senegal, but late goals from Lukaku and Tielemans showed the squad still has enough finishing quality to punish mistakes.
Belgium has allowed 1.00 goals per match with one clean sheet and a 69% save percentage. The Red Devils own a +1.6 expected goal differential and average 57% possession, giving them a slight statistical edge in chance quality. Belgium has not always moved the ball cleanly through midfield, but Kevin De Bruyne, Tielemans, Trossard, and Lukaku give the group multiple ways to create one decisive moment.
Injuries: No injuries have been reported for Belgium.
Recent Head-to-Head
Belgium has won four of the last five meetings against the United States. The Red Devils defeated the Americans 5-2 in a 2026 international friendly and also earned a 2-1 victory in the 2014 FIFA World Cup Round of 16. Belgium also won friendlies in 2011 and 2013, while the United States’ last win in this matchup came in the 1930 World Cup.
United States vs. Belgium Match Pick
- Belgium Moneyline (+180)
The United States has home-field energy in Seattle and has played well enough to make this a close match, but Balogun’s suspension changes the attacking outlook. Belgium has the better expected goals profile, more tournament-tested finishers, and a strong history in this matchup. The Red Devils were not convincing against Senegal for most of the match, but Lukaku, Tielemans, Trossard, and De Bruyne give Belgium more answers in high-pressure moments. At plus money, Belgium is the play to advance in regulation.
United States vs. Belgium Over/Under Pick
- Over 2.5 Goals (-130)
Both teams have averaged more than two goals per match during the tournament, and each side has enough attacking quality to create chances. The United States averages 2.50 goals per match, while Belgium averages 2.25 and owns a strong 2.64 expected goals mark. The Americans have conceded 1.69 expected goals per game, and Belgium has allowed one goal per match, so clean sheets may be difficult to maintain. With both teams capable of scoring and Belgium’s late-game attacking a major factor, the over to cash is the play.
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