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New York Mets at Miami Marlins
MLB: Monday, April 1, 2019, Marlins Park, Miami, Florida, 7:10 PM ET
The National League East rivals New York Mets and Miami Marlins will face in the first game of a three-game series after their respective opening series of the new MLB season against Washington and Colorado.
The pitching matchup for Monday’s tilt will give us Steven Matz for the New York Mets against the Miami Marlins’ Caleb Smith. First pitch was set for 7:10 PM ET.
The Mets scored seven runs in the final two innings to make it 2-0 over Washington
New York opened the new MLB campaign with a 2-0 win over the Washington Nationals and thanks to an excellent offensive display in the eighth and ninth inning, they won the second game of the series as well, 11-8. Pete Alonso played a key role in a win as he contributed with three hits and three runs to help the Mets jumping to 2-0 to open the season.
#MetsWIN! Our bats pound out 14 hits in D.C. 💪
FINAL: #Mets 11 – Washington 8
— New York Mets (@Mets) March 30, 2019
Steven Matz is listed as the starter against the Miami Marlins, and he’s coming from the 5-11 record in 2018, a 3.97 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, 58 walks, and 152 strikeouts in 30 games (all starts) overall. Matz faced the Marlins three times last year and recorded a win as he pitched for 17 innings, allowing nine hits and four runs with five walks and 18 strikeouts.
The Marlins responded in the third game of the series with Colorado
Miami welcomed the Colorado Rockies in the opening series of the new MLB season and although they cannot be satisfied with displays in the first two games, the Marlins bounced back with a 7-3 victory in the third tilt. This time, the Marlins never trailed and got separation in the seventh inning when they scored a pair of runs and their offense finally clicked with 16 hits in total, including Miguel Rojas and Martin Prado who contributed with three hits apiece.
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) March 31, 2019
Caleb Smith is listed as the starter against the New York Mets, and he’s coming from the 5-6 record in 2018, a 4.19 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, 33 walks, and 88 strikeouts in 16 games (all starts) overall. Smith faced the Mets twice last year and recorded a win as he pitched for 11 innings, allowing eight hits and four runs with three walks and 15 strikeouts.
- 2-8 in their last ten games played at home vs. a left-handed starter
- 1-4 in their last five games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15
- 5-16 in their last 21 during game one of a series
- 4-0 in their last four overall
- 4-0 in their last four vs. National League East rivals
- 5-1 in their last six games played on the road
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
New York won five of the previous ten H2H encounters including the last one during spring training when it was 6-0 for the Mets, but the Marlins were victorious in the past three meetings at the Marlins Park. The Mets’ starting pitcher Steven Matz is the biggest reason why I am backing the visitors in this one as the Mets are 5-0 in Matz’s last five starts vs. Marlins, so it’s obvious that Matz has what it takes to beat Miami. Although Miami’s offense played well in the first win of the season over the Rockies, I am confident Matz will take care of them and New York has the quality to respond on the other end.
Prediction: New York Mets (-140)
Full-Game Total Pick
Matz successfully neutralized Miami’s offense in his previous few displays against them and I don’t expect to see a bunch of runs here because under is 6-0 in Matz’s last six starts vs. Marlins and under is 4-0 in Matz’s previous four road starts vs. Marlins. Also, the last five meetings between the teams weren’t efficient either as under was 4-1 in the last five clashes.
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-110)
Full-Game Prop Bet
New York scored 16 runs in the last two games and they scored six in each of their previous two meetings with Miami and even though the Marlins allowed just three runs in the last two games, I am backing the visitors to score 5+ runs here.
Prediction: Team Totals New York Mets Over 4.5 (+120)
First Five Innings Side Pick
Miami was up after the opening five innings in each of their previous three games and I am backing them to continue with fine displays early on, and despite the fact that I backed the visitors to win in the end, I am going with the Marlins to have a lead after the first five innings.
Prediction: Miami Marlins (+110)
First Five Innings Total Bet
The total is set at 4 and I am pretty sure the rivals will combine for at least four runs as two of Miami’s last four games produced 5+ runs after the first five innings, which was the case in two of New York’s previous three games.
Prediction: Over 4 (-120)
First Five Innings Prop Prediction
The Mets opened the scoring in each of their three games this season and given that they will be the first at bat on Monday, I am backing the visitors to score the game’s opening run even though the -175 odds are not very attractive.
Prediction: First Team to Score New York Mets (-175)