Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee Wisconsin
When: Monday, April 15, 2019, 7:40 pm Eastern
We have a National League Central Division matchup to consider for Monday evening when the St Louis Cardinals face the Milwaukee Brewers in game one of a three-game series. It should be partly cloudy and about 50 degrees at first pitch when righty Dakota Hudson toes the rubber for the Cardinals and right-hander Freddy Peralta takes the bump for the Brewers. I’m the Flash and looking forward to discussing this game with you today.
Cardinals in Second Place in NL Central
The Cardinals are 1.5 games behind the first-place Brewers and coming off a series sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers but lost game one of their two-game series with the Cincinnati Reds. The Cardinals offense ranks ninth in the National League and the pitching staff ranks fourth in the National League with a team ERA of 3.89 and their team 4.90 xFIP suggests some regression may be in store for the Cardinals pitching staff.
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) April 14, 2019
St Louis has a small disabled list with mostly pitchers that won’t be appearing in this series with the Brewers.
Hudson (0-1, 2.79) is coming off a 4.2 inning, no earned run outing with four strikeouts and four walks in a no-decision against the Dodgers. Hudson strikes out 9.25 per nine and walks 6.52 and allows 2.79 bombs per nine innings pitched. Hudson boasts a 2.79 ERA and his 4.20 xFIP suggests some regression is in store for Hudson. The current Brewers have had some success against Hudson, slashing .267/.324/.567/.890 with three bombs and eight strikeouts in 30 career at-bats against Hudson.
The Cardinals bats rank ninth in baseball with a .217 ISO, .342 ISO, wRC+ of 111 and strike out 25 percent of the time they face right-handed pitchers this season.
Milwaukee Wins Series Against Dodgers
Milwaukee is currently sitting atop the National League Central Division with a record of 10-5 and a 1.5 game lead over the Cardinals. Milwaukee was swept 3-0 by the Los Angeles Angels and have won two consecutive games during their current series with the Dodgers. The Brewers 5.11 ERA and team xFIP of 4.18 suggests this staff is better than their number 17 ranking in baseball and the offense ranks sixth in the National League.
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) April 14, 2019
The Brewers have a decent sized disabled list with mostly pitchers that hasn’t pitched yet this season.
Peralta (1-0, 6.91) is slated to take the bump and is coming off a seven earned run, two bomb, one walk, and five strikeouts outing against the Angels for a no-decision over 3.1 innings pitched. Peralta boasts a 6.91 ERA and his 4.12 xFIP suggests some positive regression might be in store. The current Cardinals have had some success against Peralta, slashing .250/.350/.442/.792 with two bombs and 12 strikeouts over 52 career at-bats against Peralta.
Milwaukee ranks 15th in offense against righties with a .184 ISO, .324 wOBA and wRC+ of 96 with a 24 percent strikeout rate against righties this season.
- Brewers are 3-7 in their last 10 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 Monday games.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
There is value in this game and we’re making “Cash with the Flash” with the Cardinals on Monday. Milwaukee will be traveling and arriving in the wee hours of the morning whereas the Cardinals will likely be waiting for them. Both pitchers have struggled against the other side and I think the fresher team has the advantage, and that fresher team is the Cardinals.
Prediction: Cardinals +115
Full-Game Total Pick
I have a feeling there will be plenty of runs scored on Monday night in Miller Park. Neither pitcher has had much success against the other side and I think both sides will be fighting to the bat rack to face Hudson and Peralta. Both pitchers allow more than 1.5 bombs per nine and walk more than 2.5 per nine so I see a couple of three-run bombs on Monday. I saw the following trend that might be helpful for Monday night;
- Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.
We make “Cash with the Flash” when we play the over on Monday night.
Prediction: Over Nine Runs