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The Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres will continue their series here. The Rockies have gotten off to a disastrous start this season, and could really use a win here. They’ll have Jon Gray on the mound in this spot, while the Padres will start Nick Margevicius. Oddsmakers have the Padres as slight home favorites here.
This is not the start Rockies fans had envisioned. The team had a successful 2018 season and made the playoffs. But ever since they split an opening four-game series with the Marlins, they’ve completely collapsed. They lost 12 of 13 games, and nothing was working.
They did finally win the final game of their series against the Giants to get some momentum back and to try and keep it going here, they’ll start Jon Gray here. Gray entered the big leagues as a top prospect with some nasty stuff, but he’s mostly been a disappointment so far. Last year in 31 starts, he had a 5.12 ERA. He had a higher ERA on the road than at home last year, so it’s not like his struggles are due to playing at Coors Field. Gray has taken the loss in all three of his starts this season, and the only time he had a good outing was when he faced the Giants’ incredibly weak-hitting lineup. This is a team that just lost three of four games to the Giants, and they only scored eight total runs across the duration of that series.
As for their lineup, I’m not particularly optimistic about their chances here. The Rockies often struggle to hit lefties and are just 1-6 in their last seven games against left-handed starting pitchers. Margevicius has been dominant to start the season, and I don’t think Colorado will be able to hit him. In their seven road games across the series’ against the Giants and Rays, the Rockies incredibly only had ten runs. This is not a team you want to back at the moment.
The Padres had high expectations entering the season for the first time in a long time, due in large part to their signing of Manny Machado. Usually high expectations are made not to be met, but so far the Padres have actually looked better than anyone expected.
They started the season 11-6, which was good enough for first place in the NL West. The offense has been outstanding, and their crop of young starters have looked very good as well. One of those starters is Nick Margevicius a 22-year-old left-handed rookie. Through three starts, Margevicius has given up just three total runs. Even better than that, he has a whip of just 0.63. Margevicius has some nasty stuff, and this Rockies lineup has struggled heavily against lefties in the past. He’s had remarkable control, walking just one batter through three outings. He has shown way more poise than you’d expect from a pitcher who is only 22, and I see no reason to believe he won’t continue pitching at a high level here.
— Around Da Diamond (@AroundDaDiamond) April 13, 2019
The real story of this young Padres season though might be the offense. In the past, the Padres have had some very weak-hitting lineups, but that’s no longer the case. Machado and rookie Fernando Tatis Jr. have added a ton of pop to the lineup, and they’ve now hit 25 home runs on the season, which is the seventh-highest total in the MLB. Machado is 3-7 with a home run in his career against Gray, and I think the lineup should keep on rolling here.
- 4-1 in their last 5 overall
- 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League West
- 5-16 in their last 21 overall
- 3-13 in their last 16 games on grass
- 1-10 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record
- 0-4 in Gray’s last 4 starts
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I like the Padres a lot here, and I think they should be significantly larger favorites. Gray has been consistently bad for years now, and his only good start this year came against the Padres. The Rockies are 0-4 in his last four starts, and the Padres have been playing really well at home this year.
Full-Game Total Pick
I also love the over here. Gray is really bad and should get hit hard here. The Padres’ offense is a lot better than people realize, and oddsmakers still haven’t caught up yet. Margevicius is good, but he’s still only 22 and making his fourth career start here. He hasn’t faced any adversity yet, and I think we could finally start to see him crumble a bit here. There should be a lot of runs from both sides.