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Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 4-23-2019

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#905 Philadelphia
Phillies 8.5
#906 New York
Mets -130

Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 7:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Philadelphia Phillies
Z. EFLIN

12 - 10

2
W's
2
L's
3.68
ERA
1.36
WHIP

New York Mets
Z. WHEELER

12 - 10

1
W's
2
L's
6.35
ERA
1.54
WHIP

Featured Video from Scott Reichel

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will play the second game of their series here. The Mets won the first game easily by a score of 5-1. Zach Eflin will be starting for Philadelphia, with Zack Wheeler on the mound for the Mets. The Phillies are suddenly slumping a bit, and have lost four of their last five games. The Mets haven’t played well either recently, but oddsmakers have them as modest favorites here for this one.

Phillies Slumping

The Phillies started hot last year, but then faded down the stretch. They started hot again this year, but things are starting to trend downward. They lost the first game of this series 5-1, and they’ve now lost four of their last five games overall.

The offense has completely fallen apart, as they’ve scored three or fewer runs in five of their last six games. Monday night, they had just three hits the entire game against the Mets. To try and turn things around, they’ll turn to Zach Eflin here. Eflin got off to a good start with a very solid first couple of outings, but he’s collapsed in his last couple of starts. Over his last two starts, Eflin has given up 20 baserunners and eight runs in just ten innings. He’s been terrible on the road this year, and that’s not a fluke. Last season he had a 5.62 ERA on the road compared to a 3.33 ERA at home, so he clearly struggles on the road.

In four starts against the Mets last year, Eflin had a 5.95 ERA. Current Mets hitters have a .923 career OPS against Eflin, so I wouldn’t expect him to pitch well here. The Phillies don’t give him a ton of run support, and Philly is just 1-8 in Eflin’s last nine road starts. The Phillies are just 8-22 in their last 30 road games overall, so they should probably be a bit bigger of underdogs here.

Mets Get Big Win

The Mets have been up and down this season, although it’s been a net positive overall. New York enters this one with a 12-10 record, so it’s hard to complain. Steven Matz and the bullpen combined to limit the Phillies to just one run in the first game of this series.

What’s interesting about this Mets season so far is what a difficult schedule they’ve had to play. The Mets have already played 16 road games this year, but only six home games. That’s a pretty huge disparity this early in the season, and now that the Mets are finally back home I’d expect them to continue to play well. They were just returning from a ten-game road trip to start this series, and they looked really good in the first game back in front of the home fans. As they look to keep it going, they’ll turn to Zack Wheeler here. Wheeler has struggled heavily with injuries, but he’s still really talented. When he finally made it back into the rotation on a full-time basis last year, he finished with a 3.31 ERA.

He had a rough first couple of starts this year, but he’s been much better in his past two. His last start was against this Phillies team but on the road. He pitched pretty well, giving up only five hits and three runs over seven innings. Wheeler usually pitches better at home, and the Mets are 6-2 in his last eight home starts. The Mets have won eight of the last 11 times they’ve hosted the Phillies, and I see no reason to believe they won’t win here.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

I love the Mets here. The Phillies are in a slump right now, and they’re just 8-22 in their last 30 road games. The Mets just finished a ten-game road trip, and their record would be a lot better right now if they’d gotten to play a fair amount of home games. The Phillies are just 1-8 in Eflin’s last nine road starts, and you should take the Mets on the money line.

Prediction: Mets -130

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

I also like the over a lot here. Eflin is terrible on the road and has been continuously rocked away from home. The over is 5-1 in Eflin’s last six road starts, and New York’s offense looked good in the first game of this series. The over is an incredible 15-4-2 in New York’s last 21 games, and they’ve scored 31 runs over their last four home games.

Prediction: Over

Alex Porter

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