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Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
MLB: Thursday, April 25, 2019, Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 7:05 PM ET
The Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies will open a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, this Thursday night. They’ve already met each other once this season and the Phillies have won a three-game series 2-1 at Marlins Park in Miami. Caleb Smith will get the starting call for the Marlins, while Aaron Nola will get the ball for the Phillies. The tip-off is set at 7:05 PM ET.
The Marlins are looking for another upset on the road
The Miami Marlins are coming off a 6-2 defeat at the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday, one day after they upset the Indians 3-1 in the opening game of a two-game series. The Marlins are struggling this season in general, but they’ve won three of their last five contests overall including a couple of victories over the Washington Nationals in a three-game series at home. Miami is scoring only 2.74 runs per game (30th in the league) while recording a .217 batting average (27th) and a .279 on-base percentage (28th). The Marlins are allowing 4.70 runs in a return (16th in the league) with a 4.48 ERA (also 16th).
Caleb Smith will take the mound for the Marlins tonight, and the left-hander is 2-0 in his four starts this season with a 2.35 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, 29 strikeouts, and six walks, giving up 14 hits and six earned runs. Smith is 7-7 in his career with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, while the Marlins are 6-3 in his previous nine starts. Also, Smith is 1-1 in his two starts against the Phillies with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Miguel Rojas is leading the way for the Marlins bats, recording 19 hits, six RBIs, a .279 batting average, and a .333 on-base percentage.
The Phillies have been really struggling lately
The Philadelphia Phillies have just finished a seven-game road trip and are certainly happy to come back home after some tough moments in Denver and New York. The Phillies have dropped three of their four contests at the Colorado Rockies, while they’ve been beaten to the bone in the first two contests at the New York Mets (5-1 and 9-0). Philadelphia is scoring 5.09 runs per game (12th in the league) while recording a .249 batting average (15th) and a .340 on-base percentage (9th). The Phillies are allowing 5.13 runs in a return (22nd in the league) with a 4.59 ERA (19th).
Aaron Nola will take the hill for the Phillies tonight, and the right-hander is 2-0 in five starts this season with a 6.84 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, 28 strikeouts, and 12 walks, allowing 30 hits and 19 earned runs in 25 innings of work. The one-time All-Star is 3-4 in his ten starts against the Marlins with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, while Nola is 43-28 in his career with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Philadelphia is 9-7 in his previous 16 starts. Maikel Franco and Rhys Hoskins are leading the way for the Phillies bats this season. Franco has 22 hits, six home runs, 18 RBIs, a .275 batting average, and a .372 on-base percentage, while Hoskins has 22 hits, six homers, 18 RBIs, a .262 batting average, and a .392 on-base percentage.
- 11-6 in the last 17 games at home
- 8-3 in the last 11 home encounters with the NL East
- 11-6 in the last 17 meetings with Miami
- 3-12 in the last 15 road meetings with Philadelphia
- 4-15 in the last 19 games on the road
- 3-12 in the previous 15 road matchups with the NL East
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Phillies will be highly motivated to get back on the winning path in front of the home fans where they’ve been dominated the Marlins lately. On the other side, Miami is playing poorly at-bat, while the Marlins have been struggling on the road beside that upset in Cleveland. Still, I think the Marlins don’t stand a chance in the opener, so I’m backing the Phillies to win by two or more runs.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+115)
Full-Game Total Pick
The Marlins are the most inefficient team in the league, but they should score a few runs against the Phillies’ bullpen. On the other side, Philadelphia will have a tricky task against Caleb Smith. However, the Phillies are averaging six runs per contest over their previous five outings at home, and the over is 4-1 in that span, so I’m backing the over.
Prediction: Over 7.5 (-110)
Full-Game Prop Bet
In their first meetings with the Marlins this season, the Phillies have recorded 34 hits in the total over a three-game series. Their batting average is 15th in the league, but the Phillies have plenty of talent among their bats. They had ten hits at the Mets last night, so I’m backing them to keep the momentum and surpass a 7-hit mark tonight.
Prediction: Team Hits: Philadelphia Phillies over 7.5 (-120)
First Five Innings Side Pick
The Phillies had a lead after the fifth inning in two of their three contests against the Marlins earlier this season. Also, the Phillies had a 1-0 lead at the Mets last night, while they were leading after the fifth inning in three of their last five showings at home. Hereof, I expect the hosts to storm the front tonight and I’m backing them to have a lead at the end of the fifth inning.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies -0.5 (-125)