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Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction,
and Odds - 4-25-2019

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#915 Texas
Rangers 8.5
#916 Seattle
Mariners -145

Thursday, April 25, 2019 at 10:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Texas Rangers

12 - 11


Seattle Mariners

16 - 11


Featured Video from Scott Reichel

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners

Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle Washington

When: Thursday, April 25, 2019, 10:10 pm Eastern

We have an American League West Division matchup to consider for Thursday evening when the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners meet under partly cloudy skies for game one of their four-game series. The third-place Rangers are planning on right-hander Adrian Sampson to toe the rubber and on the bump for the first-place Mariners will likely be lefty Marco Gonzales. Iā€™m the Flash and will be discussing this game with you today.

Tough Times for the Rangers Pitching Staff

Texas has had their ups and downs so far this season, but they are an above .500 club and last weekend won a series off the Astros and turned around and lost a series against the Athletics. Texas has the third best offense in the American League and scores an average of 5.5 runs per game. The Rangers pitching staff has been problematic this season and is 13th in the American League with a staff ERA of 5.57 and their 5.39 xFIP suggests the Rangers staff might have been a bit unlucky thus far this season.

The Rangers have a lengthy injured list without any significant injuries other than one they have been dealing with since Spring Training.

Sampson (0-1, 5.50 ERA) has been in and out of the starting rotation and is coming off a start against the Astros where he lasted 4.1 innings while scattering seven hits including one bomb, with one walk and three strikeouts for a no-decision. Sampson has a 5.50 ERA and his 5.34 xFIP suggests maybe Sampson has been a bit unlucky thus far this season. Sampson strikes out six, walks 3.5 and allows two bombs per nine innings pitched this season. The sample size is only 13 at-bats, but the Mariners have slapped him around with two strikeouts and a slash line of .462/.467/.692/.1.159 over their brief career against Sampson.

Texas ranks 16th in baseball against left-handed pitching with a .190 ISO, wOBA of .306 and wRC+ of 82 with a 24 percent strikeout rate against southpaws this season.

Mariners Trade for Pitcher Mike Wright

The Mariners are sitting in first place in the American League West and their 16 wins are tied the Tampa Bay Rays for the most in baseball. Last weekend the Mariners won a series with the Los Angeles Angels and lost to the San Diego Padres in game one of their two-game series in San Diego. Seattle has the best offense in the American League and averaging 5.26 runs per game this season. The Mariners pitching staff ranks seventh with a team ERA of 4.44 and their 4.76 xFIP suggests maybe the Mariners pitching staff might have been a bit lucky thus far this season.

Seattle has a long injury report without any significant injuries they have been dealing with since Spring Training.

Gonzales (4-0, 3.32 ERA) is off to a terrific 2019 campaign and coming off a no-decision after pitching seven innings and allowing eight hits with three earned runs including one bomb against the Los Angeles Angels. Gonzales has a 3.32 ERA and his 4.91 xFIP suggests maybe some regression might be in store for Gonzales. The southpaw is striking out 5.92 batters, walking 2.13 and allowing just under one bomb per nine innings pitched. The current Rangers slash .293/.312/.427/.738 with two bombs and 13 strikeouts over 75 at-bats over their career against Gonzales.

The Mariners rank fifth in baseball against right-handed pitching and boast a .238 ISO, .349 wOBA and wRC+ of 124 with a 24 percent strikeout rate against righties this season.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet

The Rangers have a strong offense but not lefties and while Gonzales won’t overpower the Texas bats, he will pick them and take advantage of their 24 percent strikeout rate. Seattle has a better offense and hammers righties and Sampson looks ripe for an offense like the Mariners to take advantage of. We make “Cash with the Flash” when we play the Mariners on Thursday night.

Prediction: Mariners

Full-Game Total Pick

Vegas hasn’t posted a total yet but I have a feeling it’s going to be high and I don’t think there will be that many runs scored on Thursday night. Both sides will be traveling to play this game and they might be a bit tired. I saw the following trends that I think might be helpful for this game.

  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.
  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

We make “Cash with the Flash” when we play the under on Thursday night.

Prediction: Under

Phil Naessens

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