Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle Washington
When: Thursday, April 25, 2019, 10:10 pm Eastern
We have an American League West Division matchup to consider for Thursday evening when the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners meet under partly cloudy skies for game one of their four-game series. The third-place Rangers are planning on right-hander Adrian Sampson to toe the rubber and on the bump for the first-place Mariners will likely be lefty Marco Gonzales. I’m the Flash and will be discussing this game with you today.
Tough Times for the Rangers Pitching Staff
Texas has had their ups and downs so far this season, but they are an above .500 club and last weekend won a series off the Astros and turned around and lost a series against the Athletics. Texas has the third best offense in the American League and scores an average of 5.5 runs per game. The Rangers pitching staff has been problematic this season and is 13th in the American League with a staff ERA of 5.57 and their 5.39 xFIP suggests the Rangers staff might have been a bit unlucky thus far this season.
— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) April 24, 2019
The Rangers have a lengthy injured list without any significant injuries other than one they have been dealing with since Spring Training.
Sampson (0-1, 5.50 ERA) has been in and out of the starting rotation and is coming off a start against the Astros where he lasted 4.1 innings while scattering seven hits including one bomb, with one walk and three strikeouts for a no-decision. Sampson has a 5.50 ERA and his 5.34 xFIP suggests maybe Sampson has been a bit unlucky thus far this season. Sampson strikes out six, walks 3.5 and allows two bombs per nine innings pitched this season. The sample size is only 13 at-bats, but the Mariners have slapped him around with two strikeouts and a slash line of .462/.467/.692/.1.159 over their brief career against Sampson.
Striking first. 👊 pic.twitter.com/8SJO2mK5FF
— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) April 24, 2019
Texas ranks 16th in baseball against left-handed pitching with a .190 ISO, wOBA of .306 and wRC+ of 82 with a 24 percent strikeout rate against southpaws this season.
Mariners Trade for Pitcher Mike Wright
The Mariners are sitting in first place in the American League West and their 16 wins are tied the Tampa Bay Rays for the most in baseball. Last weekend the Mariners won a series with the Los Angeles Angels and lost to the San Diego Padres in game one of their two-game series in San Diego. Seattle has the best offense in the American League and averaging 5.26 runs per game this season. The Mariners pitching staff ranks seventh with a team ERA of 4.44 and their 4.76 xFIP suggests maybe the Mariners pitching staff might have been a bit lucky thus far this season.
#Mariners acquire right-handed pitcher Mike Wright from Baltimore in exchange for minor league infielder Ryne Ogren.
— MarinersPR (@MarinersPR) April 24, 2019
Seattle has a long injury report without any significant injuries they have been dealing with since Spring Training.
Gonzales (4-0, 3.32 ERA) is off to a terrific 2019 campaign and coming off a no-decision after pitching seven innings and allowing eight hits with three earned runs including one bomb against the Los Angeles Angels. Gonzales has a 3.32 ERA and his 4.91 xFIP suggests maybe some regression might be in store for Gonzales. The southpaw is striking out 5.92 batters, walking 2.13 and allowing just under one bomb per nine innings pitched. The current Rangers slash .293/.312/.427/.738 with two bombs and 13 strikeouts over 75 at-bats over their career against Gonzales.
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) April 23, 2019
The Mariners rank fifth in baseball against right-handed pitching and boast a .238 ISO, .349 wOBA and wRC+ of 124 with a 24 percent strikeout rate against righties this season.
- Mariners are 6-1 in Gonzales’ last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Mariners are 5-1 in Gonzales’ last 6 starts.
- Mariners are 12-3 in Gonzales’ last 15 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Mariners are 4-1 in Gonzales’ last 5 starts on grass.
- Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Rangers are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Rangers have a strong offense but not lefties and while Gonzales won’t overpower the Texas bats, he will pick them and take advantage of their 24 percent strikeout rate. Seattle has a better offense and hammers righties and Sampson looks ripe for an offense like the Mariners to take advantage of. We make “Cash with the Flash” when we play the Mariners on Thursday night.
Full-Game Total Pick
Vegas hasn’t posted a total yet but I have a feeling it’s going to be high and I don’t think there will be that many runs scored on Thursday night. Both sides will be traveling to play this game and they might be a bit tired. I saw the following trends that I think might be helpful for this game.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
We make “Cash with the Flash” when we play the under on Thursday night.