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Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Prediction,
and Odds - 5-15-2019

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#915 Baltimore
#916 New York

Wednesday, May 15, 2019 at 6:35pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Baltimore Orioles

14 - 26


New York Yankees

24 - 16


Featured Video from Scott Reichel

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees

Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx New York

When: Wednesday, May 15, 6.35 pm Eastern

We have game three of a three-game series between American League East rivals Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees to discuss for Wednesday evening under partly cloudy skies and temps in the lower 60’s. We also have two games that need to be played before this one, so all stats and opinions are based on the information available prior to Tuesday night’s game (which was rained out). This Wednesday game is also the second of a doubleheader so please keep that in mind when you are reading this preview.

Baltimore enters Tuesday’s contest with the Yankees in the last place in the American League East and plans on starting right-hander Dan Straily. The Yankees have so many injuries that they are undecided and will likely go with an “opener” and turn this game over to the bullpen. I’m the Flash and will be discussing this game for you today.

Baltimore in Rebuild Mode

The Orioles are in the last place in the American League East and is a rebuilding side hoping to build upon their record of 14 wins and 26 losses. As an away team, the Orioles have a record of 8-11 and has lost six of their last ten games and enter Tuesday’s contest hoping to build upon a one-game winning streak.

Baltimore isn’t listing any significant injuries for their series with the Yankees.

Straily (1-3, 8.23 ERA) is coming off his worst outing of the season against a visiting Los Angeles Angels club, allowing six earned runs over 4.1 innings pitched. Straily scattered five hits with one bomb, two walks and four strikeouts for his third loss of the season.

Straily has an ERA this season of 8.21 and his 7.04 xFIP suggests maybe Straily is due for some positive regression, but that probably won’t help much against a Yankees side ranked ninth in baseball this season against right-handed pitching. Straily allows nearly three bombs per nine innings pitched and that isn’t going to work very well against a Yankees side with a .190 ISO and .338 wOBA this season against righties.

Yankees Injury Woes Continue

The Yankees have been decimated with injuries but have found a way to keep winning baseball games. New York is currently in second place in the AL East with a record of 24-16 and just a half game behind division leader Tampa Bay. New York has won seven of their last ten games and enters Tuesday night’s contest hoping to extend a one-game winning streak.

New York has so many significant injuries it might be easier to name the healthy ones for this series with the Orioles.

The Yankees are undecided as to who will pitch for Wednesday so we should assume this is going to be a game left up to their MLB fourth-ranked bullpen to handle on Wednesday. The pen has a 4.26 ERA and their .375 xFIP suggests maybe the relievers have been a bit unlucky this season.

New York relievers strike out 10.92 batters per nine innings pitched and that might be problematic to an Orioles side with a 23.5 percent strikeout rate this season. New York relievers do allow 1.24 bombs per nine innings pitched and maybe Baltimore and their .150 ISO will be able to take advantage of this on Wednesday evening.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet

Nothing is posted from Vegas yet but Straily allows plenty of runs and the Yankees should be heavily favored and will likely score a bunch of runs against Straily and his 39 percent pull rate this season. That goes with Straily’s nearly three bombs allowed per nine innings pitched. The Yankees bullpen isn’t infallible and the Orioles should get a couple of runs and maybe even a bomb or two. We Cash with the Flash ONLY with a line of less than -145. If it’s over that number we fade this game on Wednesday.

Prediction: Yankees

Full-Game Total Pick

I would assume the total will be at nine to 9.5 runs and that won’t be high enough because there should be runs scored on Wednesday evening. Even if Straily gets chased early, the Orioles bullpen isn’t very good and allows nearly two bombs per nine innings pitched. Baltimore can hit the baseball and I don’t expect them to get shutout on Wednesday. We Cash with the Flash when we play the over on Wednesday afternoon.

Prediction: Over

Phil Naessens

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