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Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Indians Prediction,
and Odds - 5-16-2019

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#965 Baltimore
Orioles 8.5
#966 Cleveland
Indians -345

Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 6:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Baltimore Orioles

14 - 28


Cleveland Indians

22 - 19


Featured Video from Scott Reichel

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Indians

Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland Ohio

When: Thursday, May 16, 2019, 6:10 pm Eastern

We have an American League contest for us to consider Thursday evening when the Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Indians meet under partly cloudy skies and game time temps in the lower 60’s. This review was written prior to the start of each clubs Wednesday games and all stats and opinions are based on their play as of Tuesday, May 15, 2019.

Baltimore is in the last place in the American League East and plans on sending out to the bump right-hander Dan Straily. Cleveland is in second place in the American League Central and will look to right-hander Trevor Bauer to quiet the Orioles bats on Thursday evening. I’m the Flash and looking forward to discussing this game with you today.

Orioles 8-11 Away from Camden Yards

The Orioles are in rebuilding mode and their last-place standing in the AL East isn’t that much of a surprise. Baltimore hasn’t been that successful at home this season but has an 8-11 road record and a run differential of minus 75. The Orioles have lost six of their last ten games and enter their Wednesday contests hoping to extend a one-game winning streak.

Baltimore isn’t reporting any significant injuries for their Wednesday contests.

Straily (1-4, 8.23 ERA) is coming off a rough outing at home against the Los Angeles Angels, scattering five hits and one bomb with six earned runs over 4.1 innings pitched for his fourth loss of the season. Straily walked two and struck out four Angels during the 8-3 loss. Straily has an 8.23 ERA but his 7.05 xFIP suggests some regression might be in store for Straily at some point this season.

Cleveland has struggled with right-handed pitching this season but Straily and his 4.95 strikeouts per nine innings pitched might not be able to take advantage of the Indians 24 percent strikeout rate. Straily also walks 3.95 hitters per nine and might get away with his 2.96 home runs per nine innings pitched thanks to the Indians .107 home ISO this season

Cleveland in Second Place in AL Central

The preseason pundits had the Indians running away with the American League Central this season, but that just hasn’t been the case thus far in 2019. Cleveland is in second place in the AL Central and is four games behind the Minnesota Twins. Cleveland is 11-7 this season at Progressive Field and has lost six of its last ten games.

Cleveland has plenty listed on their injury report but nothing significant to report in the last ten days.

Bauer (4-2, 3.02 ERA) is coming off a seven-inning no-decision against the Athletics in Oakland, scattering two hits and striking out 10 in what turned out to be a 3-2 loss to the A’s. Bauer has a 3.02 ERA and his 3.84 xFIP suggests maybe a bit of luck has helped Bauer this season.

Baltimore is a bottom ten offense against right-handed pitching and probably can’t take full advantage of their 21 percent strikeout rate against Bauer and his 10.86 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Bauer does walk 4.07 per nine innings pitched and allows just under one bomb per nine innings pitched but the Orioles and their .165 ISO might have some trouble taking advantage of this on Thursday.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet

We can’t Cash with the Flash with that kind of line and I don’t see Bauer losing to the anemic offense of the Baltimore Orioles. Straily is a bit of a gas can and the Indians are starting to figure out how to score runs. Baltimore will be coming off a doubleheader and the Tribe is off Wednesday and will be waiting in Cleveland resting up for the Orioles. If I had to make a wager, I would play the Indians to beat Baltimore on Thursday night.

Prediction: Cleveland -300

Full-Game Total Pick

The Indians offense has been too inconsistent to expect them to hammer a pitcher they probably should and Bauer should tame the Orioles bats rather handily on Thursday. I saw the following trends that might be helpful for Thursday night.

  • Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland.
  • Under is 5-1 in Bauers last 6 starts vs. Orioles.

We Cash with the Flash when we play the under on Thursday night.

Prediction: Under 8.5 Runs

Phil Naessens

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