Upcoming Free Picks

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 5-16-2019

This is a past game! View all upcoming MLB games instead!

Game Snapshot with Current Line

#955 Chicago
Cubs 8.5
#956 Cincinnati
Reds -135

Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 6:40pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Chicago Cubs
J. QUINTANA

25 - 15

4
W's
2
L's
3.83
ERA
1.18
WHIP

Cincinnati Reds
L. CASTILLO

19 - 24

4
W's
1
L's
1.76
ERA
0.99
WHIP

Featured Video from Scott Reichel

The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds will wrap up their series here. The Cubs have been hot recently, while the Reds have been up and down. Jose Quintana will be on the mound for the Cubs, with Luis Castillo getting the start for Cincinnati. Due to the strength of Castillo, oddsmakers have the Reds as slight favorites here.

Cubs Overrated

The Chicago Cubs may look like they’re back, but I’m not completely sold. After a slow start to the season, which induced a lot of panic, they’ve been coming on strong lately, winning 13 of their last 15 games entering Wednesday.

However, it feels kind of phony. Most of the wins were at home, and they’re coming off a ten-game home stand to enter this series. It’s not like they’ve been explosive offensively or anything, as they’ve failed to top five runs in any of their last eight games. They’ve been winning a bunch of games by close margins, which won’t be sustainable. Oddsmakers are now overvaluing them because of their record the past couple of weeks, when it’s bound to come crashing down soon. As they look to keep it going for now, they’ll have Jose Quintana on the mound here.

Quintana has been good but not great this year, and he’s looked a little shaky recently, giving up at least three runs in two of his last three starts. He’s struggled with his control a bit in his last couple of starts, and I think this Reds lineup will be able to get to him. The Cubs’ own lineup hasn’t been particularly impressive even during their winning streak, and with the way Castillo has been pitching, I’d be very wary of backing them on the road here.

Reds Will Shock You

If you’ve been reading my picks lately, you’d know I’m a lot higher on this Reds team than most people are. They’ve been getting absurdly unlucky, and are way better than their record indicates. They have one of the league’s better run differentials, but somehow entered Wednesday six games under .500.

There’s no way that will last, and you should grab the value while you still can. The Reds have been up and down lately, and they’ll have young ace Luis Castillo on the mound here as they hunt for a win. Castillo was dominant down the stretch last season, so it’s not surprising that he’s breaking out now in his third year in the bigs. Through nine starts Castillo has a 1.76 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP. He’s only had one start where he wasn’t excellent, when he gave up four runs a couple of weeks ago, and even then he only gave up four hits. In six of his nine starts, Castillo has given up one or zero runs, and he’s only given up more than two runs in a start once since August of last year. He’s been incredibly consistent and untouchable for the most part. Unsurprisingly, the Reds are 12-5 in Castillo’s last 17 home starts.

Their lineup is also finally starting to live up to some of their potential, as guys like Joey Votto and Yasiel Puig are starting to wake up out of their season-long slumps, as both players have homered in the past few games. I’m optimistic about this Reds team moving forward, and you should be too…

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

The Cubs are being overvalued because of their recent phony win streak, while the Reds are being undervalued because of poor luck, creating a perfect storm here. Castillo has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the Reds kick it into a new gear when he’s pitching. With Castillo on the mound, you simply can’t fade the Reds right now.

Prediction: Reds -125

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

I also like the under a lot here. Castillo has been remarkably consistent, allowing more than two runs in a start just one time since August of last year. You know what you’re going to get from him, and he should shutdown the Cubs here. The under is an astounding 12-2 in Castillo’s last 14 starts, and it’s 6-0 in Chicago’s last six games overall. This one should be pretty low scoring.

Prediction: Under

Alex Porter

Coming Soon!.

Login

Forgot Password?
Forgot your password? Enter your email and we'll send you a reset token:

Return to login
Enter the token from your email and a new password. Don't forget to check your spam folder if you didn't get the email.

Upcoming Free Picks

Tuesday, May 21
NBA
#503 Milwaukee Bucks -2.5
#504 Toronto Raptors 218
8:35pm
View Pick
MLB
#913 Oakland Athletics 8
#914 Cleveland Indians -130
6:10pm
View Pick
#901 Philadelphia Phillies 8
#902 Chicago Cubs -135
7:05pm
View Pick
#903 Colorado Rockies -120
#904 Pittsburgh Pirates 7.5
7:05pm
View Pick
#915 New York Yankees -260
#916 Baltimore Orioles 9.5
7:05pm
View Pick
#917 Boston Red Sox -155
#918 Toronto Blue Jays 9
7:07pm
View Pick
#905 Washington Nationals 8.5
#906 New York Mets -140
7:10pm
View Pick
#925 Miami Marlins -105
#926 Detroit Tigers -105
7:10pm
View Pick
#927 Los Angeles Dodgers -140
#928 Tampa Bay Rays 7.5
7:10pm
View Pick
#907 Cincinnati Reds 9
#908 Milwaukee Brewers -135
7:40pm
View Pick
#919 Seattle Mariners 11.5
#920 Texas Rangers -130
8:05pm
View Pick
#921 Chicago White Sox 8.5
#922 Houston Astros -360
8:10pm
View Pick
#929 Kansas City Royals 9.5
#930 St. Louis Cardinals -170
8:15pm
View Pick
#909 Atlanta Braves -115
#910 San Francisco Giants 8
9:45pm
View Pick
#923 Minnesota Twins 9.5
#924 Los Angeles Angels -115
10:07pm
View Pick
#911 Arizona Diamondbacks -105
#912 San Diego Padres -105
10:10pm
View Pick
NHL
#25 San Jose 5.5
#26 St. Louis -170
8:08pm
View Pick
Wednesday, May 22
MLB
#951 Cincinnati Reds
#952 Milwaukee Brewers
1:10pm
View Pick
#963 Oakland Athletics
#964 Cleveland Indians
1:10pm
View Pick
#975 Kansas City Royals
#976 St. Louis Cardinals
1:15pm
View Pick
#965 Seattle Mariners
#966 Texas Rangers
2:05pm
View Pick
#953 Arizona Diamondbacks
#954 San Diego Padres
3:40pm
View Pick
#955 Colorado Rockies
#956 Pittsburgh Pirates
7:05pm
View Pick
#967 New York Yankees
#968 Baltimore Orioles
7:05pm
View Pick
#969 Boston Red Sox
#970 Toronto Blue Jays
7:07pm
View Pick
#957 Washington Nationals
#958 New York Mets
7:10pm
View Pick
#979 Los Angeles Dodgers
#980 Tampa Bay Rays
7:10pm
View Pick
#971 Chicago White Sox
#972 Houston Astros
8:10pm
View Pick