Upcoming Free Picks

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction,
and Odds - 5-16-2019

This is a past game! View all upcoming MLB games instead!

Game Snapshot with Current Line

#955 Chicago
Cubs 8.5
#956 Cincinnati
Reds -135

Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 6:40pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Chicago Cubs

25 - 15


Cincinnati Reds

19 - 24


Featured Video from Scott Reichel

The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds will wrap up their series here. The Cubs have been hot recently, while the Reds have been up and down. Jose Quintana will be on the mound for the Cubs, with Luis Castillo getting the start for Cincinnati. Due to the strength of Castillo, oddsmakers have the Reds as slight favorites here.

Cubs Overrated

The Chicago Cubs may look like they’re back, but I’m not completely sold. After a slow start to the season, which induced a lot of panic, they’ve been coming on strong lately, winning 13 of their last 15 games entering Wednesday.

However, it feels kind of phony. Most of the wins were at home, and they’re coming off a ten-game home stand to enter this series. It’s not like they’ve been explosive offensively or anything, as they’ve failed to top five runs in any of their last eight games. They’ve been winning a bunch of games by close margins, which won’t be sustainable. Oddsmakers are now overvaluing them because of their record the past couple of weeks, when it’s bound to come crashing down soon. As they look to keep it going for now, they’ll have Jose Quintana on the mound here.

Quintana has been good but not great this year, and he’s looked a little shaky recently, giving up at least three runs in two of his last three starts. He’s struggled with his control a bit in his last couple of starts, and I think this Reds lineup will be able to get to him. The Cubs’ own lineup hasn’t been particularly impressive even during their winning streak, and with the way Castillo has been pitching, I’d be very wary of backing them on the road here.

Reds Will Shock You

If you’ve been reading my picks lately, you’d know I’m a lot higher on this Reds team than most people are. They’ve been getting absurdly unlucky, and are way better than their record indicates. They have one of the league’s better run differentials, but somehow entered Wednesday six games under .500.

There’s no way that will last, and you should grab the value while you still can. The Reds have been up and down lately, and they’ll have young ace Luis Castillo on the mound here as they hunt for a win. Castillo was dominant down the stretch last season, so it’s not surprising that he’s breaking out now in his third year in the bigs. Through nine starts Castillo has a 1.76 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP. He’s only had one start where he wasn’t excellent, when he gave up four runs a couple of weeks ago, and even then he only gave up four hits. In six of his nine starts, Castillo has given up one or zero runs, and he’s only given up more than two runs in a start once since August of last year. He’s been incredibly consistent and untouchable for the most part. Unsurprisingly, the Reds are 12-5 in Castillo’s last 17 home starts.

Their lineup is also finally starting to live up to some of their potential, as guys like Joey Votto and Yasiel Puig are starting to wake up out of their season-long slumps, as both players have homered in the past few games. I’m optimistic about this Reds team moving forward, and you should be too…

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet

The Cubs are being overvalued because of their recent phony win streak, while the Reds are being undervalued because of poor luck, creating a perfect storm here. Castillo has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the Reds kick it into a new gear when he’s pitching. With Castillo on the mound, you simply can’t fade the Reds right now.

Prediction: Reds -125

Full-Game Total Pick

I also like the under a lot here. Castillo has been remarkably consistent, allowing more than two runs in a start just one time since August of last year. You know what you’re going to get from him, and he should shutdown the Cubs here. The under is an astounding 12-2 in Castillo’s last 14 starts, and it’s 6-0 in Chicago’s last six games overall. This one should be pretty low scoring.

Prediction: Under

Alex Porter

Coming Soon!.


Forgot Password?
Forgot your password? Enter your email and we'll send you a reset token:

Return to login
Enter the token from your email and a new password. Don't forget to check your spam folder if you didn't get the email.

Upcoming Free Picks

Wednesday, Jul 17
#975 New York Mets
#976 Minnesota Twins
View Pick
#951 Pittsburgh Pirates 9
#952 St. Louis Cardinals -130
View Pick
#953 Atlanta Braves -105
#954 Milwaukee Brewers -105
View Pick
#955 Cincinnati Reds
#956 Chicago Cubs
View Pick
#957 San Francisco Giants
#958 Colorado Rockies
View Pick
#959 Los Angeles Dodgers
#960 Philadelphia Phillies
View Pick
#977 Washington Nationals
#978 Baltimore Orioles
View Pick
#961 San Diego Padres
#962 Miami Marlins
View Pick
#967 Toronto Blue Jays
#968 Boston Red Sox
View Pick
#969 Detroit Tigers
#970 Cleveland Indians
View Pick
#971 Chicago White Sox
#972 Kansas City Royals
View Pick
#973 Houston Astros
#974 Los Angeles Angels
View Pick