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The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Milwaukee Brewers for the fourth and final game of their series here. The Brewers were scorching hot recently, but they then dropped a few games in a row. Zach Davies will start for the Brewers here, while Zach Eflin will take the mound for the Phillies. Oddsmakers opened Philly as a slight favorite here.
The Brewers came within a game of making the World Series last year, so it’s safe to say they entered 2019 with lofty expectations. They started the season off just so-so, but they caught fire recently by winning seven straight games.
Still though I haven’t been that impressed with them, and six of those seven wins came against the Nationals and Mets, who are both struggling heavily. They then had all their momentum snapped by losing three straight games before they finally rebounded with a win on Tuesday. They’ll have Zach Davies on the mound here, and I also think Davies’ recent results have been a bit misleading. Davies has been having a great year if you just look at his ERA, which is somehow only 1.54. When you dig into it though, you’ll find that there’s no way that will last. Davies has a 1.22 WHIP which is average at best, and his ERA isn’t sustainable with the amount of baserunners he’s been giving up.
He’s been getting really fortunate, and considering he had a 4.77 ERA last year, it’s only a matter of time before he gets exposed. The Brewers are 16-8 at home this year but just 9-11 on the road, which is one of the widest splits in the league. The offense has been just average over the last week, and I really think Davies is due for a letdown. Oddsmakers are probably overvaluing them here…
Phillies Back On Track?
This is a crucial year for the Phillies. They missed the playoffs again last year, and their front office made it clear they weren’t going to accept that again. They spent big in free agency, including on Bryce Harper, and they need to win in 2019.
They’ve gotten off to a pretty good start, entering with a 24-17 record, and have been especially good recently. They’ve won five of seven entering Wednesday, and are 7-3 in their last ten home games. They’re a team that very much feeds off the crowd’s energy, and they play way better at home. They haven’t just been winning games, they’ve been winning them big, as 12 of their last 13 wins have been by at least three runs. They’ll have Zach Eflin on the mound here as they look to keep the momentum going. Eflin has been one of the biggest bright spots on the team this year, and enters with a stellar 2.47 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.
83MPH curveball (2078 RPM)
93MPH four-seam (2211 RPM) pic.twitter.com/VhncNj1iVf
— Michael Augustine (@AugustineMLB) May 6, 2019
He’s thrown a complete game in two of his last three starts, which is absurd in this day and age. Over his last three outings, he’s given up just two runs and 17 baserunners in 25 innings. He pitches even better at home, and Philly is a perfect 5-0 in his last five home starts. With the way Eflin is pitching right now, it would seem pretty foolish to fade him, especially at home.
- 7-3 in their last 10 home games
- 5-0 in Eflin’s last 5 home starts
- 10-4 in their last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter
- 0-4 in Davies’ last 4 starts with 4 days of rest
- 2-5 in their last 7 during game 4 of a series
- 3-8 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
There’s a lot of value on the Phillies here. Oddsmakers are overvaluing Davies because of his extremely low ERA, but all the metrics say he’s getting really lucky, and Eflin even has a lower WHIP. Eflin has thrown complete games in two of his last three starts, and is the hottest pitcher in baseball right now. The Phillies are 5-0 in his last five home starts, and there’s no way you can fade him at home right now.
Prediction: Phillies -125
Full-Game Total Pick
All the talk will be about the strong starting pitching matchup here, and I think this is a good time to fade the perception and go over. It’s only a matter of time before Davies gets exposed and returns to his pre-2019 form, and I think it’ll happen here. Eflin should be worn out from pitching 25 innings over his last three starts, and the bullpen might have to take over early.