Upcoming Free Picks

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 5-16-2019

This is a past game! View all upcoming MLB games instead!

Game Snapshot with Current Line

#953 Milwaukee
Brewers 8.5
#954 Philadelphia
Phillies -125

Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 1:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Milwaukee Brewers
Z. DAVIES

26 - 19

4
W's
0
L's
1.54
ERA
1.22
WHIP

Philadelphia Phillies
Z. EFLIN

24 - 18

5
W's
3
L's
2.47
ERA
1.02
WHIP

Featured Video from Scott Reichel

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Milwaukee Brewers for the fourth and final game of their series here. The Brewers were scorching hot recently, but they then dropped a few games in a row. Zach Davies will start for the Brewers here, while Zach Eflin will take the mound for the Phillies. Oddsmakers opened Philly as a slight favorite here.

Brewers Overrated

The Brewers came within a game of making the World Series last year, so it’s safe to say they entered 2019 with lofty expectations. They started the season off just so-so, but they caught fire recently by winning seven straight games.

Still though I haven’t been that impressed with them, and six of those seven wins came against the Nationals and Mets, who are both struggling heavily. They then had all their momentum snapped by losing three straight games before they finally rebounded with a win on Tuesday. They’ll have Zach Davies on the mound here, and I also think Davies’ recent results have been a bit misleading. Davies has been having a great year if you just look at his ERA, which is somehow only 1.54. When you dig into it though, you’ll find that there’s no way that will last. Davies has a 1.22 WHIP which is average at best, and his ERA isn’t sustainable with the amount of baserunners he’s been giving up.

He’s been getting really fortunate, and considering he had a 4.77 ERA last year, it’s only a matter of time before he gets exposed. The Brewers are 16-8 at home this year but just 9-11 on the road, which is one of the widest splits in the league. The offense has been just average over the last week, and I really think Davies is due for a letdown. Oddsmakers are probably overvaluing them here…

Phillies Back On Track?

This is a crucial year for the Phillies. They missed the playoffs again last year, and their front office made it clear they weren’t going to accept that again. They spent big in free agency, including on Bryce Harper, and they need to win in 2019.

They’ve gotten off to a pretty good start, entering with a 24-17 record, and have been especially good recently. They’ve won five of seven entering Wednesday, and are 7-3 in their last ten home games. They’re a team that very much feeds off the crowd’s energy, and they play way better at home. They haven’t just been winning games, they’ve been winning them big, as 12 of their last 13 wins have been by at least three runs. They’ll have Zach Eflin on the mound here as they look to keep the momentum going. Eflin has been one of the biggest bright spots on the team this year, and enters with a stellar 2.47 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.

He’s thrown a complete game in two of his last three starts, which is absurd in this day and age. Over his last three outings, he’s given up just two runs and 17 baserunners in 25 innings. He pitches even better at home, and Philly is a perfect 5-0 in his last five home starts. With the way Eflin is pitching right now, it would seem pretty foolish to fade him, especially at home.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

There’s a lot of value on the Phillies here. Oddsmakers are overvaluing Davies because of his extremely low ERA, but all the metrics say he’s getting really lucky, and Eflin even has a lower WHIP. Eflin has thrown complete games in two of his last three starts, and is the hottest pitcher in baseball right now. The Phillies are 5-0 in his last five home starts, and there’s no way you can fade him at home right now.

Prediction: Phillies -125

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

All the talk will be about the strong starting pitching matchup here, and I think this is a good time to fade the perception and go over. It’s only a matter of time before Davies gets exposed and returns to his pre-2019 form, and I think it’ll happen here. Eflin should be worn out from pitching 25 innings over his last three starts, and the bullpen might have to take over early.

Prediction: Over

Alex Porter

Coming Soon!.

Login

Forgot Password?
Forgot your password? Enter your email and we'll send you a reset token:

Return to login
Enter the token from your email and a new password. Don't forget to check your spam folder if you didn't get the email.

Upcoming Free Picks

Tuesday, May 21
NBA
#503 Milwaukee Bucks -2.5
#504 Toronto Raptors 218
8:35pm
View Pick
MLB
#913 Oakland Athletics 8
#914 Cleveland Indians -130
6:10pm
View Pick
#901 Philadelphia Phillies 8
#902 Chicago Cubs -135
7:05pm
View Pick
#903 Colorado Rockies -120
#904 Pittsburgh Pirates 7.5
7:05pm
View Pick
#915 New York Yankees -260
#916 Baltimore Orioles 9.5
7:05pm
View Pick
#917 Boston Red Sox -155
#918 Toronto Blue Jays 9
7:07pm
View Pick
#905 Washington Nationals 8.5
#906 New York Mets -140
7:10pm
View Pick
#925 Miami Marlins -105
#926 Detroit Tigers -105
7:10pm
View Pick
#927 Los Angeles Dodgers -140
#928 Tampa Bay Rays 7.5
7:10pm
View Pick
#907 Cincinnati Reds 9
#908 Milwaukee Brewers -135
7:40pm
View Pick
#919 Seattle Mariners 11.5
#920 Texas Rangers -130
8:05pm
View Pick
#921 Chicago White Sox 8.5
#922 Houston Astros -360
8:10pm
View Pick
#929 Kansas City Royals 9.5
#930 St. Louis Cardinals -170
8:15pm
View Pick
#909 Atlanta Braves -115
#910 San Francisco Giants 8
9:45pm
View Pick
#923 Minnesota Twins 9.5
#924 Los Angeles Angels -115
10:07pm
View Pick
#911 Arizona Diamondbacks -105
#912 San Diego Padres -105
10:10pm
View Pick
NHL
#25 San Jose 5.5
#26 St. Louis -170
8:08pm
View Pick
Wednesday, May 22
MLB
#951 Cincinnati Reds
#952 Milwaukee Brewers
1:10pm
View Pick
#963 Oakland Athletics
#964 Cleveland Indians
1:10pm
View Pick
#975 Kansas City Royals
#976 St. Louis Cardinals
1:15pm
View Pick
#965 Seattle Mariners
#966 Texas Rangers
2:05pm
View Pick
#953 Arizona Diamondbacks
#954 San Diego Padres
3:40pm
View Pick
#955 Colorado Rockies
#956 Pittsburgh Pirates
7:05pm
View Pick
#967 New York Yankees
#968 Baltimore Orioles
7:05pm
View Pick
#969 Boston Red Sox
#970 Toronto Blue Jays
7:07pm
View Pick
#957 Washington Nationals
#958 New York Mets
7:10pm
View Pick
#979 Los Angeles Dodgers
#980 Tampa Bay Rays
7:10pm
View Pick
#971 Chicago White Sox
#972 Houston Astros
8:10pm
View Pick